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Tucson Absorption Rates for May 2009

June 9, 2009

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Tucson Absorption Rate for May 2009 6.59

We inch closer to the magic number of “Normal”  6 months inventory.  We are well past that mark for some of the areas of town.  We are almost there for all of it despite the fact we have a few outlying areas which serve as anchors to pull the overall absorption rate higher than it should be for Tucson.

We are closer.  Much closer than we started the year.  Third quarter started 9 days ago.  We could easily reach the 6 month absorption rate for overall this quarter.  I’ll be having lunch with Chris one way or another.  But it is looking better for me right now. : )

There are a number of areas already at just over 4 months inventory.  Those are below normal levels.  I imagine the only think keeping sales prices down in those areas is the overall outlook of the economy.

A fact slipped into a foreclose, short sale class yesterday.  Only 17% of the active listings (6,506) are foreclosures or short sales.  This is good news.  There are also a number of indicators there are groups of investors buying up homes, remodeling them and flipping them back on the market.  This is healthy market activity.  No neighborhood needs empty foreclosures sitting on the market.

Finally, 30 year fixed interest rates have gone back above the 5% level due to fears of inflation.  Re-financing is down and the cost of buing has gone up due to this increase.  Will it drop back down below 5%?  Don’t expect it.  As a matter of fact it looks like it is headed above 6% in the next few months, if not weeks.

Post Tags: Tucson Absorption Rates May 2009

Tucson MLS Statistics for May 2009

June 8, 2009

The Tucson Real Estate Market continues a slow and steady return to health.  May showed continued improvement in the numbers with almost all the number going in the right direction.  Inventory DOWN,  Average sale price, median sale price Closed Contracts  UP, these are great signs for sellers and for the confidence level of buyers.

We have already seen the May closed transaction jump to 1000 and still climbing.  Climbing slowly but I’m sure a few more will be added.

I’m not going into the usual breakdown this month, the chart is big enough and easy to read.  Pluses where we want them minuses, the same.

I will predict we will see a drop in Average and Median Sale price in June.  Why?  because we are clearing a lot of foreclosure and short sale inventory right now.  The number of closed transaction is moving along for June but expect to see these two indicators I must mentioned drop rather steeply.  It will take a few more sales in the high end market to raise these numbers.  We shall see.

This should be our last month for the astrick on the Pending Sales.  Next month we will start comparing apples to apples once again.  And for one final time I’ll explain.  Pending contracts used to be reported as “All contracts with a status of Pending”  this meant that if a contract was pending close with a close of escrow date three months out that transaction would show up for three months.  As of July last year this was changed to Pending = the month in which a sale goes “Pending”  result, reported once.

The real story this month is absorption rates.  Those have dropped steadily since the first of the year and we are closing in on the elusive “normal” of 6 months inventory.  Some areas of town are already well under that with 4 areas in the 4 months of inventory.  Absorption rates will be reported tomorrow.

The link to the full report is in the sidebar under documents.  Or Tucson MLS May 09 Statisitcs Report.

Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-May-2009 , tucson-mls-statistics-May-2009 , Tucson-real-estate-May-2009

Tucson Snowbirds Back in June Is it Global Warming?

June 4, 2009

Could it be global warming bringing so many snowbirds back to Tucson in June?  Or is it a confidence in the economy that wasn’t here when they were this winter.

There are a lot of snowbirds making quick forays into Tucson in June to find a new nest for next winter.  This is very out of character for snowbirds.

Most years they are here in late September to October.  In an election year some stay till after they vote.  The second crop come right after the holidays, this is the group that usually rents for 3 months.  The early crowd most of the time have a second home here.

Often the rent a nesters will be looking for a place during their stay for next year.  This winter there was a lot of fear among the few rent a nesters that ventured south.  The nest egg had been raided and thei 401k  was a now a 201 or even a 101k.

The interesting thing is when they are in town during the “regular” snowbird season prices go up.  During the summer months when they aren’t around prices go down.  More supply less demand, usually.

This year seeking to stretch those dollars farther the snowbirds are returning during the “off-season” to find a new nest for this coming winter.  They are planning on being here.  They have more confidence in the recovering economy and their buying power has stabilized.  They aren’t here looking for jobs, so their purchase power and decision is based on the warm winter weather.

If you have never had a $700 monthly heat bill or frozen your fingers and toes while scrapping the windshield you might not understand the influence of warm winter weather.  If you have never had to bundle up for days in a row and shovel snow while looking to the gray skies for any sign of the yellow orb called the sun.  You might not understand.

But if you have lived year after year with that winter memory, one January in Tucson wearing shorts, sitting outside on the patio and smelling neighborhood barbecue grills each evening has a very strong appeal.

It isn’t global warming that brings them to Tucson when it is 101 outside.  It is the desire to find that affordable winter nest.  And they are finding them.

Post Tags: Snowbirds , warm winter weather

Finding a Tucson Home Just Got Easier

June 3, 2009

IDX Solution, what kind of solution is that? IDX Stands for Internet Data Exchange. It makes it possible for us to provide you with detailed information about homes listed for sale in the Tucson MLS.

Gone are the days when the agent “controls” THE BOOK. Good riddance. What a difference today. Now we/you/ us can search for properties meeting our criteria without spending hours and hours paging through a book of tiny print and a single black and white picture of the front of the house.

Now we can search on a myriad of criteria and get the results sent directly to us in our email.

New IDX Solution in Tucson

With IDX on our site you have more choices. You can have us enter your criteria the way we always have into the Tucson MLS for you and you will get the results in email.

Or you can set up as many searches as you want and come back as often as you want to create new ones. The IDX store is open 24 hours a day 7 days a week.

If you haven’t found the new page yet check out the new button at the top Search Tucson Homes. See it looks like this.

Nice button don’t you think? That button opens the door to finding whatever type of home in Tucson. Whatever you are looking for it should be here. We have even included the Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure buttons should you want to be bold and search for those properties.

If you haven’t tried it out yet, take it for a spin.

Registration

This is simple, if you want properties emails to you we need a valid email address so you can receive them. You can create an account for yourself right away and start saving searches and setting up favorite properties. After 5 searches we ask that you register. However, the only email you will get from us is the response acknowledging your registration. We hate spam and we don’t like to be bothered. We want our questions answered promptly but on our terms.

We feel the same way about you. The only correspondence you will get from us is when you ask for it.

Customize Search Result Pages

I’m also adding an number of custom search result pages. An example of this is: Sam Hughes Homes for Sale This is a page created on the fly when you click on it. The homes on that page are always up to date. When a home is sold it rolls off the page, when a new one comes on it will appear with it’s listing date on the first line.

Click on the address and it will take you to a full detailed page with complete information, map location and lots more information.

Just the Picture Please

If you don’t want to go through all the detail on the page click on a listing photo. All the photos on that page will be put in a slideshow for you to view.

The Quick Search

In the sidebar just above the Featured Listings section is the Quick Search. Fill in the basics and hit search. You will be taken to the Search page with the results of your search. There you can add more criteria to refine the results of your search even more.

We are working hard to make it easier for you to Search Tucson Homes. Look for more community pages and special searches for areas and types of homes to be included over the coming weeks. As new features are made available we will point those out in short IDX Updates.

We think this is going to provide all of us with a better search experience. There is more, much more but I won’t take the fun out of discovering some of the great things you can do and see with this new Tucson IDX Solution.

Any Questions or Comments?

This is a new product in the Tucson market. I don’t know if we are the first to implement it, if not we are close to the first. When I worked for our brokerage as the database administrator one of my tasks was writing the data exchange interface between the Tucson MLS and the Brokerage website. That experience gave me a unique perspective and opportunity.

I’m working with the company to provide all of us with more features for search criteria. I want them to have the best product possible so you have the best data available for making informed decisions.

If you have questions or request please leave a comment below. I’ll be glad to present them to the company.

Now we have a better tool for finding those properties of interest to all of us.

Post Tags: internet data exchange , Search for Tucson Homes , Tucson IDX

Tucson Real Estate Market in Transition

June 2, 2009

Because I daily update the number of closed transactions, average sale price and the median sale price I have noticed the trend upward over the past month. This trend upward does not appear to be an anomaly. The average and median sale price as of today is $204,281, the median sale price is $170,000. This month began with a median sale price of $160,000.

Friday May 29, 2009 there were 806 closed transactions. By the end of the day it was 896.  May31st  933; June 1st 968. On June 3rd the data will be pulled for May’s statistical report from the Tucson MLS. There were 1070 closed transactions in May 2008. It looks like we will met or exceed that number this month.

The inventory continues to decrease and even with the number of foreclosures increasing the average and median sale price continues to rise.  School is out and families are moving. It is one of the prime seasons on real estate in Tucson.

Post Tags: daily updates , median sale price , Tucson-MLS

Moving Ahead with Fear While Looking Back

June 1, 2009

These are difficult times for both buyers and sellers. Sellers are afraid they won’t be able to sell their home for what they owe on it. Buyers are still afraid they will pay too much for a home.

Buyers looking back while moving ahead with a attitude of fear. These are trying times. As has been said many times, bottom can only be called after it is over. There might be more foreclosures and short sales coming on the market, but there are buyers for them. Buyers who move ahead looking ahead, with the knowledge what is behind. They also know they are purchasing homes for an interest rate that is the lowest in modern history and for purchase prices not seen since 2004.

The buyers who are driven and consumed by fear today will look back on this time and know they had no valid reason to fear.

Today a buyer we have been working with canceled a contract out of fear. The home inspection was complete, the termite inspection complete with no evidence of termites, but fear knows as buyers remorse was too much. The contract was canceled. The buyers have decided to wait for 6 months to a year till the market is more stable. It will be more stable, but for now it is a sad story. Sad for the seller that had their home off the market for 2 weeks and possible missed out on a valid buyer. Sad for the buyer because now they will always wonder and question this decision not to buy at the lowest price and for the lowest interest rate. They invested time and money, for inspections, their time and travel to Tucson.

We invested a lot of our time in the process as well. It happens a lot these days.

It is unfortunate.

Post Tags: buyers remorse , Fear of the Fututre , Tucson-Home-Buyers

Pima County #3 of 10 Best Places To Grow Old – Forbes Magazine

May 31, 2009

Pima County was #3 in Forbes list of 10 Best Places to Grow Old. The information is in a slideshow that moves so fast no one retirement age can even read the content.

Making Lemons out of Lemon aid

Each morning I get a summary email from the “Arizona Daily Star”.  It is a nice way to start the day knowing what bad news is being reported.  You might think this a strange way to start the day, but I prefer to get the bad news out of the way before I’m away, before I’ve had that first cup of coffee or breakfast.  So I wake up, water the plants and read my email.  Then I go take my shower and wash off as much of the bad new (and bad reporting of it) as I can.  Once dressed and off to McDonalds for coffee and a sausage muffin life seems better; at least until the DOW comes across the bottom of the television screen.  I should find a new place to sit. (Make a note)

Where do the Lemons come in.  Once again Josh Brodesky found a way to take a positive, find the one possible negative in it and turn on the magnifying glass.  If anyone has ever doubted his qualifications to be a reporter for the ADS rest assured, he is qualified.

Take a second to read what Forbes had to say about Pima County.  Now see that last sentence.  “Most of the population surrounding the city of Tucson, where the subprime mortgage crisis has resulted in thousands of suddenly affordable homes.”

Forbes is NOT saying the subprime mortgage crisis is what makes Pima County #3 as a Best Place to Grow Old.  No  They say it because of the weather, the parks and recreation, and the physical activity seniors can have all year round.

Mr. Broadesky in the course of writing the article placed a call to Jack Camper to add some fuel to the fire.

“But, of course, this was a “Best places” list, and those only get published once a day by numerous magazines and Web sites. So I thought I’d ask Jack Camper, president and CEO of the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, if this is a marketing point he would like to embrace.
“That’s pathetic as hell is what it is,” he said after I read him the ranking. “There are thousands of homes on the market, and there are thousands of homes that are in foreclosure and short sales. But that is all over the country, not just in Tucson.”

Do you think Mr. Camper was upset that Pima County was #3 on the list, or do you think he was only read the last sentence? I don’t think that reaction came from being #3. Jack did us all a favor by turning the Lemons back into lemon aid with this statement.

“Then Camper listed all of the reasons a person could retire in Tucson: arts and culture, beautiful outdoors, a strong university, continuing education opportunities, golf and, of course, plenty of sunshine.”

Forbes Ranking and Tucson Real Estate

DON’T SKIP THIS PART.  Do you think Forbes would have picked Pima County as one of the top 10 places to grow old if it for one second believed the Tucson real estate market was in trouble?  Do you think they would stake their reputation on Retired people on a fixed income loosing everything they have and going into economic ruin if they didn’t believe Tucson had a viable and sustainable real estate market. NO, they would not.

Not once is the word foreclosure mentioned by Forbes, it is by Broadesky, but not by Forbes.  The way Josh turns this argument you would think Forbes reasoning was “All you old folk go to Tucson because you can pick up foreclosure properties for a song”.  Anyone that deals in the foreclosure market knows these homes are not for the faint of heart.  Buing a foreclosed home is a gamble.  Another story appearing in todays business section referred to the Booby-Traps often left in foreclosed homes.  Cement poured down toilets, shower drains, laundry drains are just a few of the things sometimes done.  Appliance, countertops, ceiling fans, light fixtures, ac units are all often removed (ripped) right out of the house.  These are not the type of homes most people retirment are looking to purchase.

Watching the numbers

Have you been watching the Daily update in the sidebar at the top?  Have you notice how the average and median sale prices have climbed during the month.  Median in the first week in May started around $163,000 and as of this morning it was $170,000.  Average sale price is doing the same, climbing.  This is good news for sellers and probably good news for buyers as well.  I’ll have a lot more to report this week on what’s happening in the Tucson Real Estate Market.  We have also added some new tools and features to make it easier to find the Tucson home right for you.

Post Tags: #3 of 10 best places to grow old , tucson good place to grow old