So Why Am I still in Irvine ?

August 10, 2009

Natural Sciences 2 UC Irvine

The weather could be a quick and truthful answer. It is low 70’s sunny and a gentle breeze seems to blow 24/7. I’m less than 10 miles from the ocean and the beach. The Pacific Coastal Highway is 5 minutes away. The architecture here at the UC Irvine Campus could keep me as a photographer shoting away for months. But there don’t seem to be any McDonalds in Irvine. Go Figure.

While a vente cup of Starbucks is $1.95 all over California (compared to $2.10+) in Tucson the egg mcmuffin when you can find one is quite a bit more. However, the sausage muffin on the dollar menu back in Tucson is $2.50 here in CA. Another Go Figure.

So why am I still here? It seems moving file cabinets and all of ones worldly possessions into a second floor apartment where there are only stairs takes two guys and a small hand truck longer to get everything moved than initially imagined. Plus, there are the break in between each trip to the trailer and van.

What does this have to do with Life in Tucson?

It might be hot there now, Barbara tells me 109 yesterday and 108 today, there are a few things we DON’T have I’m looking forward to when I get back.

We Don’t have:

Lots of Traffic
Smog
Earthquakes
Landslides
Gas that is over $3 a gallon
10% sales tax
A state economy that is in a shambles

Sorry about that last one. But the rest of the list is pretty good. Tucson in the summer is hot, we all know it. A good monsoon season there breaks the heat and seeing water running down the streets and the Road Closed signs are part of summer in Tucson. But the Monsoon seems to have forgotten to show up for the most part this year.

I’m still in Irvine for today. Tomorrow I’ll pack up early, head down the Pacific Coastal Highway to San Clemente and if the photographer in me wins I’ll stop at the beach, if not I’ll hop right on I-5 toward San Diego and be in Tucson in about 7 hours give or take a lunch stop. I know I’ve been missed : )

July Statistics as I said were much better than many thought they would be, but instead of being willing to acknowledge the fact we are treated to “We are probably bumming along bottom” or “But there might be a lot of people holding their homes off the market and we could have a glut of listings soon”. I don’t think either of those is going to happen.

I’ll have statistics analysis up later this week. I won’t sugar coat it, as I never do, but I won’t doom and gloom it like the media. For now have a great Monday and “Stay Cool”.

By Dave Smith in Tucson Living

3 Responses to “So Why Am I still in Irvine ?”

concerned Says:
August 10th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
So Why Am I still in Irvine ?

That’s what I wanna know, too! How irresponsible of ya to have a life, Dave! As if you don’t have reports to write!
chris swenson Says:
August 12th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Thinking of you while cruising in British Columbia & hope you are enjoying your holiday in Irvine. I want to doing some financial planning as to if I have to buy lunch in October & thus this question.

I buy if inventory’s are below 6000 if I remember correctly & you have posted that this summer they are 5800+/-. Then I read this………..

Tucson, AZ and surrounding regions
50th Percentile (median) price and inventory data
click to see 25th 50th 75th percentile
Price: Inventory:
Last: 08/12/2009 $210,000 8,718
Prev: 08/10/2009 $210,000 8,684
Change: (0.00%) +34 (0.39%)
52wk Range: 210,000 – 240,000 6,916 – 9,950

1 month -9,000 (-4.11%) -125 (-1.41%)
3 months -14,500 (-6.46%) -1,101 (-11.21%)
6 months -25,000 (-10.64%) +1,237 (16.54%)
12 months -25,000 (-10.64%) -1,184 (-11.96%)

median price
It’s from this link……
http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Tucson

Are they using bad data? A larger area? Anyway no biggie, just want you to know I did not forget our “date” & look forward to it.

Also, I am very happy that Tucson, no matter what the inventory, is doing mucho better than most other areas of the country. I was sure wrong on the general climate for real estate in TUS.

Chris Swenson
Dave Smith Says:
August 16th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Chris,

Sorry taking so long to get to this, had to get back to Tucson then dig out.

Here is the link to the bet comment:
http://www.tucsonazrealestateblog.com/tucson-real-estate-market/tucson-absorption-rates-march-2009/#comment-11416

If inventories fell below 6 months before the end of the year. We are currently at 4.99 months of inventory. The number of listing is over 6000 but barely.

As to the apparent discrepancy in the numbers. The fine print under the link says “for all properties in the region”. This would pretty much include southern AZ. It also would include rental investment properties, ranches and the few farms that would be listed. The Tucson MLS stats are for the Tucson Area (but do include Saharita and Green Valley) but not all of Pima and Pinal County listings.

The Absorption rate has fallen even lower than I had anticipated by July. I think it will climb slightly in August but not above the 6 month level. But in two weeks we shall see.

Right now it is HOT HOT HOT in Tucson and the Monsoon seems to have gone into hiding this year for the most part. Stay North and where the water is for a few more weeks. I’ll keep you up to date : )

Looking forward to meeting in the fall when you get back.

Dave