Sorry taking so long to get to this, had to get back to Tucson then dig out.

Here is the link to the bet comment:
http://www.tucsonazrealestateblog.com/tucson-real-estate-market/tucson-absorption-rates-march-2009/#comment-11416

If inventories fell below 6 months before the end of the year. We are currently at 4.99 months of inventory. The number of listing is over 6000 but barely.

As to the apparent discrepancy in the numbers. The fine print under the link says “for all properties in the region”. This would pretty much include southern AZ. It also would include rental investment properties, ranches and the few farms that would be listed. The Tucson MLS stats are for the Tucson Area (but do include Saharita and Green Valley) but not all of Pima and Pinal County listings.

The Absorption rate has fallen even lower than I had anticipated by July. I think it will climb slightly in August but not above the 6 month level. But in two weeks we shall see.

Right now it is HOT HOT HOT in Tucson and the Monsoon seems to have gone into hiding this year for the most part. Stay North and where the water is for a few more weeks. I’ll keep you up to date : )

Looking forward to meeting in the fall when you get back.

Dave

I buy if inventory’s are below 6000 if I remember correctly & you have posted that this summer they are 5800+/-. Then I read this………..

Tucson, AZ and surrounding regions
50th Percentile (median) price and inventory data
click to see 25th 50th 75th percentile
Price: Inventory:
Last: 08/12/2009 $210,000 8,718
Prev: 08/10/2009 $210,000 8,684
Change: (0.00%) +34 (0.39%)
52wk Range: 210,000 – 240,000 6,916 – 9,950

1 month -9,000 (-4.11%) -125 (-1.41%)
3 months -14,500 (-6.46%) -1,101 (-11.21%)
6 months -25,000 (-10.64%) +1,237 (16.54%)
12 months -25,000 (-10.64%) -1,184 (-11.96%)

median price
It’s from this link……
http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Tucson

Are they using bad data? A larger area? Anyway no biggie, just want you to know I did not forget our “date” & look forward to it.

Also, I am very happy that Tucson, no matter what the inventory, is doing mucho better than most other areas of the country. I was sure wrong on the general climate for real estate in TUS.

Chris Swenson

That’s what I wanna know, too! How irresponsible of ya to have a life, Dave! As if you don’t have reports to write!