I’m not in the predicting business, I’m in the reporting business, and the numbers over last year are going up not down.

What the future hold . . .

“With the sale prices continuing to climb every month, you might be waiting a long while for that 30% reduction.”

Are you serious? Am I reading the alternate version of reality here? Have I not been getting emails from a real estate agent for the last 6 months that CLEARLY show a decline in prices?

Like I’ve been saying all along… wait until the mortgages reset. 50 billion dollars of mortgages will reset this month. As sure as Gravity… the prices will come down.

You have hit on a key factor in the economy and housing. The Fed and the control of money and interest rates has a huge impact on the market.

And remember when the Fed lowers the short term borrowing rate, the 30 year fixed rate goes UP not DOWN.

A lot of people miss this fact.

This IS true, though:

Your best bet for a real bargin is in New Construction where the builder is almost built out and wants to get rid of those last few homes before closing out.

Even that may turn out to be a bad deal… but the only one who does have a crystal ball is the Fed and none of us seem to have connections there.;-) However, one thing I learned the hard way very recently is “do NOT bet against the Fed!” The fundamentals don’t matter, the historical data doesn’t matter, the recent economic data doesn’t matter… what does matter is attempting to foresee what the Fed would like to do and go along with it… That’s the only way to possibly get some crumbs from the table.

With the sale prices continuing to climb every month, you might be waiting a long while for that 30% reduction.

We are helping sellers sell their homes and buyers buy homes and no one is loosing any money.

Granted there are some people that paid way to much for a home in the last couple of years. And now have to sell them, but they are in the minority, not the majority.

People that are buying homes to live in and not as an “investment vehicle” are doing fine. And will continue to do so in the future.

There are plenty of homes in Tucson that can be bought today and will hold their value and provide and excellent home for their family.

You keep wanting this dream of lower home prices to come true and it just isn’t happening.

We work in this market everyday. There are some asking prices coming back to the market, but we are still seeing people that bought homes in 2004 and later that are clearing more than $150K over what they paid for those homes just 3 years ago.

Sure they were asking for 300K more than they paid, which was way out of line. They have and are riding the market down to where it is today. But are still making an incredible profit on those homes.

And the buyers will not be loosing money on them either. They are building equity every month and year they live in those homes.

Your best bet for a real bargin is in New Construction where the builder is almost built out and wants to get rid of those last few homes before closing out. There you can get a new home at an incredible price and have instant equity.

RIGHT NOW TODAY, not in some wished for 30% future.

I’m in the game. I’ve been “in” the game for a long time, and I would like to be a home owner. The problem is the homes are overpriced.

Its that simple. Its been that simple from the beginning. The friggin 2 x 4′s that built the homes in are not worth the 2007 asking price’s.

The reality of the the housing market in Tucson is grim and it is getting worse. Why? Because it was pumped up on nothing more than speculation. Period. No amount of stat manipulation is going to change the facts…

Just like the boom. I wanted people to wake up and realize that this was completely unsustainable. No matter how much I wanted the prices to level off so I could buy they just kept going up.

Now, no matter how much you want or think the market should “stabilize”… It’s not going to happen any time soon. The sooner you figure out that this market has a WHOLE lot of correction left, the sooner you will see the recovery.

I’m not talking doom and gloom. I’m actually positive. Positive that the prices still need to come down to sustainable levels that OUR market can support (another 30% at least). Slice it anyway you want… what you call “Doom and gloom” is nothing more than rational Economics.

The map link got caught in the spam filter and I didn’t catch it till just this morning.

Thanks for the link to the mapping.

Seriously, when are you going to stop playing arm chair quarter back and get into the game?

You have seem to have all the answers, why don’t you run for president and let people just buy and sell their homes and get on with their lives.

I’m sorry, the swinging of your dead cat around these parts just isn’t flying, and when you want to make it a philosophical argument for the heck of it that’s one thing, but the doom and gloom you keep trying to pedal isn’t going to be bought by real people with real homes to buy or sell.

For you (A none home owner) it is just an exercise. For people that actually are IN the real estate market and don’t just TALK about the real estate market it is important.

So maybe it is time for you to be an ADULT and BE HONEST and quite telling everyone that as done what you have never done how to do it.

Oh, have a great weekend. After all it is just a debate.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/1012ev-homevalues1013.html

Come on, lets be adults about this. Be HONEST.