January’s absorption rate was 9.12. I was actually expecting to see the February rate higher than January’s. The number of new listings being over 2000 and the number of closed transactions at 750 looked like it would push the absorption rate up. It didn’t. The rate dropped ever so slightly.
But that is the overall absorption rate. The detailed look area by area shows where there were movement in both directions. It is always interesting to see what parts of Tucson are moving and which ones have lost ground.
Last year the hot areas of town were Central, East, South, and South East. Those areas were often under 4 months of inventory in 2009. They contributed greatly to the absorption rate falling to 6 months during the 3rd and 4th quarters last year.
The Central area has seen the largest increase in inventory shooting up to 13.61 months of inventory. East and South East have moved into the 8 + months and only S is holding at sub 6 months inventory with 4.71 months of inventory.
The biggest swing was a statistical swing. The XW area had 49 listing last month and 1 sold showing a 49 month inventory in that area. That dropped to 14.66 months with 4 transactions this past month. Showing how little things have to change in reality to inject a major statistical swing.
The number of pending contracts in February was a great sign for March. We already have over 200 transactions recorded for the month. That might not sound like a lot with 1/3 of the month gone, but it is.
Keep watching the updates for March as the closed transactions continue to be entered into the system.
If you want to see the entire Tucson MLS Statistics report for February it is in the side navigation under “Documents”.
