Tucson MLS Statistics for February 2009
March 9, 2009
Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-February-2009 , tucson-mls-statistics-February-2009 , Tucson-real-estate-February-2009
The Tucson MLS Statistics for February 2009 were released this morning. The cover letter included with the report is quite reserved. It doesn’t overstate the state of the Tucson real estate market. It also doesn’t point out some positive signs which I will indicate in this review and analysis. I would refer to the letter with cautious optimism which is quite refreshing to see. Too many times the reporting of the real estate market has been way too optimistic in interpreting the numbers.
No single months statistics is a “trend”. Looking at February over January it isn’t hard to find some positive numbers. January and February for that matter we all witnessed an economy on life support. It is still on life support as I write this. This morning Warren Buffet the “Oracle of Omaha” indicated that even as wise as the oracle is when the entire economy goes off a cliff there is not place to make money or keep from loosing value.
It means there are a lot of bargains to be found in the stock market, the question is “Am I buying a discontinued item” That is never a concern when it comes to real estate. Companies come and go, but as Dad used to say “Son, they ain’t making any more land”. (In the part of Ohio where I grew up “ain’t” was an acceptable word in the English language.)
Here are the numbers
Tucson MLS Statistics Jan 09 – Feb 09 Summary
Average Sale Price/Median Sale Price
This is quite an uptick in a single month. It might be back down in March and the early figures for March show a trend down at this point. But a few strong closings in the last three weeks of the month will change those figures which at this point in the month really are “too early to tell”.
The Average Sale Price was up $14,074 and the Median Sale Price was up $14,750 over January 09. The Median sale price has dropped steadily each month since July 08, till this month. It is back to where it was in Nov. 08. This is quite a rebound in Median Sale Price and we will watch this closely over the next couple of months. If it holds or continues to gain we will have the place to show our “bottom” of the market was January 09. But at this point it is too early to tell. That said, it is a positive sign to see this big a gain in the midst of this recession and cliff diving experience.
Total Units Sold
* Total units sold for Jan in the report is 588, however a query of MLS shows 607 for January. But the report also shows 659 for February and currently in MLS there are 676 close transactions which mean there were + 69 closed transaction; close to the same number but significantly more sales than the either number indicates in the report. This also mean that in year over year comparisons we are closer than the report would indicate.
Pending Contract
Pending contracts being up more than 100 for the month over January is another good indicator. But on the comparison of 08 pendings to 09 we have the * still in effect for a couple of months indicating the criteria for what counts as a pending was narrowed in May of last year so there will be fewer pending contracts indicated on the report while in actuality there may be more than last year.
Active Listings
There are fewer active listings this month and few new listings as well. Everyone in the Tucson real estate market (except some buyers) will benefit from a reduction in inventory including short sales and REO’s. It would be nice to see the measures taken by the Obama administration to help keep people in their homes and out of foreclosure having a positive effect on our local economy and helping families stay in their homes.
Tucson MLS Statistics Feb 08 – Feb 09 Summary
Active Listings/New Listings
This is the one negative number which indicates a positive. Inventories are coming down, and hopefully the numbers of new listings being reduced is because people aren’t having to sell and will be able to keep their homes with the help of some of the new programs available.
You can find the entire report Tucson MLS Statistics for February 2009 on the Tucson Realtors site. It is always available in the right hand navigation under “Documents”.
I’ll have the February 2009 Absorption Rates ready and posted tomorrow.
March 12th, 2009 at 8:02 am
Just when we saw some good news Strobeck threw a bucket of cold water this morning. According to him, all of this won’t be done until the median price reaches 130K. It hasn’t been 130K since 2001! Granted, he is the expert, but I think this is ridiculous!