Tucson MLS Statistics for June 2007
July 17, 2007
Post Tags: Tucson-Housing-Market-2007 , Tucson-Real-Estate-Trends
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The Tucson MLS Statistics were released on July 13, 2007. The numbers continue to reflect a strong and healthy Tucson Real Estate Market in June 2007. April was pretty flat, May showed improvement in sectors of the numbers. June reflects an even stronger market than May. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see what’s been happening.
Tucson MLS Statistics May 07 - June 07 Summary
| Category |
May |
June 2007 |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $280,589 | $298,477 | + $17,888 |
| Total Units Sold | 1313 | 1226 | - 87 |
| Median Sale Price | $223,500 | $229,000 | + $5,500 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 61 | 64 | + 3 |
| Pending Contracts | 1191 | 2053 | + 862 |
| Active Listings | 9,721 | 8,665 | - 1056 |
| New Listings | 2,960 | 2,820 | - 140 |
Average Sale Priceshows a dramatic increase over May’s average sale price by $17,888 and the highest average sale price ever reported by the Tucson MLS. Up till now the highest average sale price was in March of 06 at $282,439. June’s average sale price is $16,038 higher than the highest ever reported. There is a very health luxury and high end real estate market in Tucson. When the stock market does well, the high end market reflect those gains. But it isn’t just the high end that reflect an increase in the numbers.
Total Units Sold reflects a drop over May with a difference of 87. This is not uncommon for June. Many people are taking the kids and going on vacation in June and not thinking about closing on a home. But the number of pending contract show people were writing a lot of contracts in June.
Median Sale Price is $5,500 higher than May and is the highest median sale price recorded in Tucson real estate history. Until now the highest ever recorded was $227,000 back in February 06. June’s median sale price is $2,000 higher.
Median Sale Price breakdown:
- SFR $245,406 37.45%
- TH $163,750 24.99%
- C $149,950 22.88%
- MFR $ 96,250 14.69 %
Notice the Town homes and Condos are split out in this month report. Thank You Tucson MLS for splitting out these figures. It provides a much better look this sector of the market.
Average Days on Market have less and less appeal, I keep reporting them only because some people to see this figure. It is manipulated so easily it has very little value in statistical analysis. The DOM continues to hover around the 60 mark, June being 64 an increase of 3 days over May. The numbers indicate that 33.7 % of the homes are selling in under 30 days.
Pending Contracts are up, that is an under-statement. They are way up May 1,191, June 2,053 an increase of 862 contracts written and accepted in June. Pending Contracts are always a good early indicator of where the market is headed. More on this coming this week on a post titled “Tucson Real Estate Market Convergence”.
Active Listingsare down significantly as well. The number of active listings dropped by 1,056 over last month. This is another indicator of the Tucson Real Estate Market turning. June 06 saw 8,725 active listings to be fair we have to limit this number to 8,051 so we have a fair comparison with last years figures since the Tucson MLS no longer reports on areas outside of the Tucson Area.
New Constructionwas dropped from the Tucson MLS Statistical report for June.
Typical for the Tucson MLS but unfortunate. There is no mention of this being dropped anywhere noticeable that I can find in the report; nor is there a reminder that the reports are based only on Tucson area statistics and not every thing in the system. This changed last month and we reported this last month in the post Tucson MLS Statistical Reports Change. This is the reason for the adjustment above in the number of active listings reported here.
The Year over Year figures are encouraging as well.
Tucson MLS Statistics June 06 - June 07 Summary
| Category |
June |
June |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $273,701 | $298,477 | + $24,776 |
| Total Units Sold | 1,458 | 1,226 | - 232 |
| Median Sale Price | $225,000 | $229,000 | + $4,000 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 46 | 64 | + 18 |
| Pending Contracts | 1,712 | 2,053 | + 341 |
| Active Listings | 8,725 | 8,665 | - 60 |
| New Listings | 3,232 | 2,820 | - 412 |
The graph above pretty much speaks for itself. The only two perceived negatives might be the total units sold which is off by 232 from last June and the DOM at 18 more. I hate to sound like I’m beating a horse to death concerning the relevance of this number to the market as a whole.
The increase in the Average Sale Price and the Median Sale Price to record levels indicate just how much the Tucson Real Estate Market is bucking the national trends. This really does not sounds like a “Total Meltdown” or “A bloodbath” etc. recently reported in “The Arizona Daily Star“. It should be noted those “Analysts” were in the speculative and high risk part of Real Estate and for them it might be a bloodbath, but not for Tucson home buyers and sellers.
The Bottom Line
There are many indicators the Tucson Real Estate Market is healthy and not following national trends. Here comes the same thing we have said for months.
Sellers, price and location but mainly price determines how quickly you sell.
Buyers, it is a buyers market, but not as strong a buyers market as it has been. Interest rates are actually down slightly and at near record lows. If you are waiting for prices to come down, you should be aware that asking prices have been coming back to the market but sale prices have increased every month since February of this year.
Average Sale Prices Feb to June 2007
- Feb $260,207
- Mar $271,762
- Apr $278,992
- May $280,589
- June $298,477
This is an increase of $38,270 in the average sale price February to June.
There are some reporting the Tucson Real Estate Market is “Flat right now.” The Tucson Real Estate market is anything but flat. Unless you call the HIGHEST Average Sale Price and the HIGHEST Median Sale Price in Tucson History flat.
All the numbers are in the Tucson MLS Statistics for June 2007
July 19th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
Hi Dave!
Its pretty obvious, no? The TAR® wants to exclude any data that paints the market in its true colors. You do an excellent job reporting what your given (despite the fact that I whole heartedly disagree with your analysis 99% of the time).
Its so transparent and sad that the TAR® does things like this. Oh well… we still have about 250 billion dollars in mortgage resets nation wide in the next 6 months. We just went to the bottom of the fifth inning.
July 19th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
bobby joe,
You might find this interesting. TAR is still comparing this years figures to last years figures which would end up in making them worse not better.
The mortgage reset is going to be something to watch. I would like to point out this issue impact Real Estate, but is produced by the Mortgage Industry and lack of regulation by Uncle Sam.
July 19th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Hi Dave!
When are those figures going to be released, or are they?
The meltdown of the Bear Sterns Funds I mentioned weeks ago finally came to fruition and are now basically worthless. Read here: Bear Sterns Letter to clients
Moody’s, S&P, and a slew of credit agencies have downgraded funds like a kid in a candy store. Look at these indexes:
AAA (Investment Grade tranche)
http://www.markit.com/cache/curves/1b9934791f1e15afc9ae7f45781.png
AA (step below AAA)
http://www.markit.com/cache/curves/b0fb7db3438f6c248f04c75487b.png
BBB (you get the idea)
http://www.markit.com/cache/curves/857f971c5e3a4d7b14c4e551dc1.png
Dave, its going to be epic ugly… mark my words to the market. You should really check out:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
Good blog put on by two mortgage industry insiders… the comment section is loaded with bears like me… so watch out
Pay particular attention to the “Ubernerd” posts as they really shed light on what the homies on wall st. are doing.
July 19th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
In the First link pay attention to the third paragraph.
In the graphs… Keep in mind that these tranches are levered 10 to 1 in most cases and 20 to 1 in extreme cases. A 5 to 10% decline in value makes them worthless. Something on the order of a trillion dollars are tied up in these; UNREGULATED and HIGHLY complex funds.. that are priced according to a mathematical model and now what appears to be a hoax credit rating. They were levered to the hilt and there is NO true way to derive the REAL value of these things… and there are a LOT of them.
Stock market indices are lagging indicators, they are. A strong (correct) bull market usually* leads with financial’s, its not. What you are seeing is smoke and mirrors (AKA Short Squeeze). Think 1987 (Savings & Loan), think 2000 (dot com)…
(*99% of the time)
One last thing… check out the dollar index:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&w=15&a=50&v=d12
Keep in mind that the dollar has NEVER been below 80.
July 27th, 2007 at 11:34 am
@ Bobby Joe
Unregulated? Are you joking?
July 27th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Unfortunately, no. They are not regulated like Stocks.
The fund and credit markets are absolutely imploding. The only reason we haven’t crashed significantly harder is the Japanese Yen and Foreign investment. The Japanese have destroyed the Yen to save the dollar. Its more complex than that, but basically what is happening.
Like I said, the credit crunch is in full effect. Once it becomes hard for the major players to raise capital, it becomes REAL hard for us simpletons to get a loan. Just keep watching, you’ll see it in the media in the next two weeks or so.
Look at all the Have you seen all the big M&A deals. They are falling through like sand in a 1 inch sieve. Everyone is having a hard-time raising capital because very few people know how to access the risk. Its going to be a systemic problem and will affect all markets. Its going to get ugly.
August 1st, 2007 at 11:10 am
Hi — Do you have any comparable statistics for the sales of residential lots in the Tucson area and/or professional insight into the latest trends in that sector?
August 1st, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Tucker,
No as far as I know there is no reporting on residential lots. Most of those are by developers as part of their development.
You can do a search of the Tucson MLS specifying lots and see what is available.
We have access to the public Tucson MLS Search on our website at:
http://www.barbaralasky.com/tucson-mls-search.html