Tucson MLS Statistics for June 2009
July 9, 2009
Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-June-2009 , tucson-mls-statistics-June-2009 , Tucson-real-estate-June-2009
June for the Tucson Real Estate Market was the month with the most closed transactions for 2009. There are a number of significant markers in the data which we will get to in this report. This is one of the best months for Tucson Real Estate in the past two years. Sale prices have not rebounded to previous levels. For sellers this might be a disappointment but an honest reality check says those prices were driven by an economic factor in the lending markets that made it possible for people to pay just about any asking price and get a loan for the purchase. A practice our country is now picking up the tab for. We don’t want or need a return to over inflated values fueled by an economy of greed, not on the part of sellers or the lending industry.
The Average Sale Price continues to rise. Last month it was by $10,000; this month almost $5,000 more than May. This means we have seen an average sale price of a home in Tucson rise more than $15,000 in the past two months. This indicates that short sales and REO are not the only thing selling in the Tucson real estate market.
The Median Sale Price has declined in June by $5,000, which I predicted early in June. Why? because more excess inventory in the form of REO and short sale properties are coming off the market. This is a good thing. I need to write next week about the process of a short sale from offer to closing. But, for this report factor in this data, once an offer is made on a short sale property it can take 2 months for the documents to be entered into the system, then it is assigned an account rep and after that it will be at least 45 days before a person making an offer will know if their offer was accepted. This means, the short sales closing in June were probably properties with offers made on them in March or earlier. Clearing these properties from the market is a time consuming process.
Pending Contracts is another key market indicator. Here we pause to note the passing of the *. What do I mean? It was in June last year the Tucson MLS changed the criteria for a pending sale. It used to be any sale that had a status of pending during the month was still a pending sale. If a property went pending in March but didn’t close till June it was counted as a pending in March, April and May. In June of 2008 that all changed. From that date on Pending Sales were only counted as pending for the month in which they went pending.
We have 130 more pending contracts for June than May. But more significant we have 481 more pending contracts in June of 09 than in June of 08. From 951 to 1432. That is over 30% more pending contracts than last year. This is significant.
Active Listings are also down again in June. This month they dropped another 245 over May. Tomorrow I’ll be posting the Absorption Rates for June. Did we make it under the “Normal” standard of 6 months inventory? Check back tomorrow.
New listings were up by 188 but the number of closed transactions not only wiped that out it took the inventory numbers as a whole down 245.
Year over Year
We are approaching August 09. It was August of 07 when we saw a big drop in activity in the Tucson real estate market. Then a steady rise from January through July. I along with many thought we would see it continue to recover. But it didn’t. Then the same was true as we moved toward August of 08. Last year the storm clouds were on the horizon and I already was thinking we were about the see the wheels come off the bus. During most of 2008 all the signs were pointing to some kind of economic upheaval in the financial markets. No one knew the global effects this upheaval would have on the world economy.
Now we are in July of 09. June numbers are very positive and it looks like the hunt for “Bottom” came in May or June depending on the criteria for determining that point.
July is showing levels of activity way above a normal Monsoon Summer in Tucson. This is our winter in real estate. Activity picks up in August in some areas as college students and their parents are looking for 4 year housing. But that impact is limited to homes around the campus. But the level of activity in our market in July is due to the abnormal economic factors in place now. The $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit is running out. Time is short to take advantage of it and don’t count on congress extending it or making it available to all. That is a gamble. With the average sale price already up by over $15,000 in the past two months I don’t have to point out the difference in the math to see why waiting can be expensive. It is a two edged sword and guessing on timing the market is risky. The odds of getting hit by Monsoon lightening or winning the powerball are better than timing the market.
The entire Tucson MLS June Statistics report is available in the sidebar link. Or you can click here on Tucson MLS June 2009 Statistics Report.
July 9th, 2009 at 8:01 am
“Did we make it under the “Normal” standard of 6 months inventory? Check back tomorrow.”
You, teaser, you!
I’m guessing we did if you say that! Well, some areas already had.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
How is the $499,000 to $749,000 dollar propertys doing in tucson.
Also how are ranch propertys viewed as saleable in the 499,000 to $749,000 range.
It is good to hear we in tucson are making it in this challenging economy.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Tom,
The upper tear properties aren’t moving as fast as the lower, which is to be expected. There were 549 active properties in that bracket in June 32 sold. If we put that in an Absorption Rate calculation we would have 17.15 months of overall inventory. Of course that would change if we broke it out from area to area.
I’m not up on the ranch market or statistics. There is no break out for Ranches inside the Residential sales statistics.
Dave
July 22nd, 2009 at 8:37 am
Dave,
Thanks for the info. What is the inventory in the Tucson Mountains area extending over into the Avera Valley Quadrant for The $499,000 to $749,000 Ranchet Horse Propertys.
Do you believe the Avra Valley realistate sector is given the fair consideration, by the Tucson Realistate industry, that it deserves for the lifistyle it provides being just 20 minutes out of downtown Tucson. I have seen and heard some less than professional attitudes toward the area from the Tucson Realstate industry and it is unfounded. Maybe with the current market as is some of the survivors will re-think the beautiful Avara Valley area.
July 22nd, 2009 at 9:05 am
Tom
I haven’t heard anything negative about the area in or from the RE industry. The one thing I do here is that it is flat, there is a lot of wind and dust and there is not close shopping. (Close meaning a mile or less).
July 22nd, 2009 at 10:39 am
Dave,
I agree that shopping is not a mile away but that is the trade off for living in the rural area of Avra valley. As for dust, well I have lived in Tucson for 54 years and dust and wind is every where in Tucson, espccially now. How is flat a contributuing factor one way or another? Tucson is pretty flat and the beautul Tucson Mountains, Desert Musume and Sahjauaro National Mountain Park are very attractive for outdoor activitys and are not flat. I think you may have just given the same thumbs down i was talking about earlier.
Aver Valley deserves a better opinion by the RE people.
July 22nd, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Tom,
I didn’t give it a thumbs down, I did respond to what I’ve heard that might be considered negative by the RE community. I think it is a matter of personal choice. Those that want wide open spaces and not be closed in the valley is great. For those wanting quick access to shopping and hospitals, lots of dining options it won’t be their cup of tea any more than Saddlebrooke would to those wanting the same things. It is a matter of personal taste and lifestyle.