Tucson MLS Statistics for March 2007
April 12, 2007
Post Tags: Active-Adult-market , family-homes-market , Tucson-MLS-Statistics-March-2007 , U-of-A-student-housing-market
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April 9th saw the release of the March Tucson MLS Statistics. There are some interesting trends in the numbers for both buyers and sellers.
First here is the summary breakdown from month to month
Tucson MLS Statistics Feb 07 - Mar 07 Summary
| Category |
Feb |
Mar |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $258,377 | $276,496 | + $18,119 |
| Total Units Sold | 912 | 1246 | + 334 |
| Median Sale Price | $218,900 | $222,700 | + $3,800 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 65 | 67 | + 2 |
| Pending Contracts | 1094 | 1192 | + 98 |
| Active Listings | 9847 | 10,185 | + 338 |
| New Listings | 2376 | 2710 | + 334 |
| Avg.Sale Price NC | $266,038 | $285,868 | + $19,830 |
March was a month of “+ pluses” as you can see from the table above. We were and are still in the Active Adult second home market in the Tucson real estate market. The U of A students and parent are also very much a part of our current market and continue to be in this first half of April. The Active Adult, second home is drawing to a close and if your home on the market fits this description you might need to consider a price adjustment. This may be necessary to remain competitive with the potential buyers for that market being fewer in the coming months.
Average Sale Price was up in March by $18,119 this is indicative of the strength of this buying season.
Median Sale Price was up in March as well to $222,700 an increase of $3,800.
Average Days on Market increased by just 2 days to 67 days or 7 weeks. This number includes the days it takes up to Close of Escrow which usually is 30 days with conventional financing and 45 for FHA. The percentage of homes sold in the first 30 days increased from 34.9% to 37.1% and in the first 60 days from 55.7% to 60.3% meaning just over 60% of the homes on the market were sold in 60 days.
Pending Contract again is a bright spot in the market with 1,192 pending sales going into April an increase of 98 for the month and 329 more than in the end of January.
Active Listings increased by the widest margin in a few month to 10,185 and the first time we have been over the 10,000 mark. This represents an increase of 338 over last month, however the number of units sold in March were up 334 so a net of 4 available units is the end result.
New Construction average sale price was $285,868 up $19,983 over February. There are still builder incentives in the market with some builders closing out certain phases of construction. The good news for the resale market with this increase in NC sales price the resale market becomes more competitive in those areas. There were only 44 NC units sold in Feb. 07 and 89 sold in March at an average of almost $20,000 more per unit is a healthy increase for the New Construction Market.
Now let’s will move on to the year over year figures.
Tucson MLS Statistics Mar 06 - Mar 07 Summary
| Category |
Mar |
Mar |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $282,439 | $276,496 | - $5,943 |
| Total Units Sold | 1501 | 1246 | - 255 |
| Median Sale Price | $218,000 | $222,700 | + $4,700 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 45 | 67 | + 22 |
| Pending Contracts | 2250 | 1192 | -1058 |
| Active Listings | 7577 | 10,185 | + 2608 |
| New Listings | 3205 | 2710 | - 495 |
| Avg.Sale Price NC | $358,654 | $285,868 | - $72,786 |
Tucson Real Estate Market Analysis for March 07
The big run up in the Tucson real estate market was in 2005 through November of that year. The momentum from that unprecedented run up in value carried the market to peak around the middle of 2006, but anyone working in Tucson real estate saw things changing in those last couple of month of 05.
It was in January of 2006 when we started seeing an increase in the number of listings on the market that were exceeding a typical January by about a third. Starting in June of 06 we started to see the number of units sold decreasing slightly over the previous year while the number of available units on the market increasing dynamically. The widening of the gap between sold units and available units lead to the perception that the market was to quote some “A Bust” “A Burst Bubble” “A Housing Slump”, and that was and continues to be the perception of some based on an increase in available listing inventory.
However, you need a decrease in units sold to produce those metaphors mentioned above and while there has been a slight decrease, it is, and continues to be, a very healthy real estate market in Tucson.
Tucson Real Estate Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers Tucson is covers a lot of area. You should never price your home based on information about “Tucson” in the NW there were 2682 active listing in March in the E there were only 532. When you see 10,185 active listings in Tucson please remember you are not competing with all those listings, you are not even competing with all the listings in your area of Tucson. You are competing with other homes in your community, neighborhood or subdivision that are like your home on the market.
Set yourself apart from the competition.
- Keep the house clean and picked up
- Keep the landscaping scaped
- Keep your home smelling fresh
- Keep the influence of pets to a minimum
(no pee on the carpets or closets, no droppings in the yard) - Price it to sell, not to sit
The post on “Riding the Real Estate Wave” will help you avoid one of the largest pitfalls of sellers in this kind of market.
For Buyers you are in luck, in 2005 and the beginning of 2006 there wasn’t much to chose from and asking prices were going up hourly. Now asking prices have come back to the reality of the market for the most part. There are good homes at fair market prices available. But, if you think the Tucson Real Estate Market is ripe for picking up some cheap bargains, then you better look somewhere else.
Arizona continues to be the fastest growing state in the country. Tucson is expecting an increase in the baby boomer population of an estimated 33,000 every year for the next 10 years. There are some very nice homes from which to select your next home in Tucson.
Tucson Family Season of Real Estate Begins
We are coming into our family season of the market. If you have a 4 or 5 bedroom home there aren’t too many Active Adults or second home buyers that want that much space. Now is a good time to put your home on the market. If you are looking for student housing, you shouldn’t delay, a lot of that available housing is being purchased during March April and May.
Oh, yes, I almost forgot, here is the link to the entire report from the Tucson MLS March 2007 Statisitcs. I keep a link to the current stats in the right hand navigation under the heading “Documents” so you don’t have to find these statistics posts for the link each month.
April 30th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
So, what is the expected foreclosure activity for Tucson?
The other numbers mean very little. With the tightening up of lending standards and the increases in foreclosures, there will be a hard ceiling on any housing appreciation.
This is not a buyers market or a sellers market, it’s a renter’s market.
April 30th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
Jim,
From what we have seen so far teh foreclosure activity is not significantly higher.
In Tucson the other numbers due mean quite a bit, with over 10,000 available listings in Tucson right now it is a buyers market. The number of foreclosures simply increase the number of available homes making it an even stronger buyers market.
Tucson has a very unique housing market on this country, it is one of the few places expecting to have over 33,000 boomers moving to Tucson every year for the next 10 years.
Tucson has a strong second home market. At almost any given time in Tucson there are a third of the homes vacant. Most of those are winter visitor second homes.
Also in Tucson many homes are sold on a “cash” basis. People retiring from either the West or East cost find our market very reasonably priced compared to where they are moving from and they often pay cash.
Tightening of the subprime lending practice is good for the market. People need to be able to actually afford to buy and make the payments on a monthly basis, in a timely manner to own a home.
Two things took place during the height of the booming market of 05 and 06 that in hind sight are turning out to be very good.
1. New Construction made buyers sign a contract that they would live in the home for at least one year before they sold the home. This limited the number of investors buying New Construction.
2. Many HOA’s passed rules saying you could not purchase a home as an investment, you could only buy if you planned on living in the home.
These two things stopped a lot of speculators from making purchases they could not afford.
Right now it is a buyers market and looks to remain such for at least the next year.
As to renters, most foreclosures won’t be for rent, many homes on the market won’t be for rent since they will be sold in the first 60 days on market. Others can’t afford to give up the tax benefits of ownership. As soon as they rent the home it is no longer a primary residence and they will have to pay capital gains on the home.
Again, expected foreclosure activity is not significant enough at this time or in the near future to impact the market as a whole.