Tucson MLS Statistics for March 2009
April 6, 2009
Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-March-2009 , tucson-mls-statistics-March-2009 , Tucson-real-estate-March-2009
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Tucson MLS March 2009 Statistics Report Released
I have to start this post with a big ATA BOY for the Tucson MLS. They pulled stats on Friday morning April 3rd right on schedule. The usual process has been for them to go somewhere, I don’t know where, maybe a curing room, or on a desk somewhere waiting for a cover letter.
Where ever they go, it takes another week to 10 days for them to be released. This means the current month is half over before any of us get the final report. BUT NOT THIS MONTH. Friday afternoon I received an email from the Tucson MLS saying the report was ready and a link was included. (This also is something new and I like it.)
This means before the first week of April is over we have March Stats.
And here are the numbers:
Average Sale Price/Median Sale Price
There was a significant drop in both of these price categories. On a strict month to month basis there isn’t much to be derived from these figures. It only takes a couple of sales to impact the numbers. Since there were 233 more closed transactions in March than February, we are grateful for the increase and the inventory continues to be reduces.
Total Units Sold
The reported number 892 is very good considering the state of the economy. As of the moment of this writing have been 900 entered in the system for April. I expect there will be more over the next few weeks. Again, considering there were 930 for March of 2008 (Remember March 2008, no economic meltdown, no wall street bailouts on the horizon, no fear you would be driving a government backed GM vehicle), considering where we are a difference of only 30 transactions is remarkable. And that number will shrink even more in the coming weeks.
Pending Contracts
Pending contracts are the closest thing we have to a crystal ball in Tucson real estate. They are up over last month by a couple of hundred. February saw an increase over January and the trend continues into March. Jan. 914; Feb. 1020; Mar. 1204.
The first time home buyers are taking advantage of the $8000 tax credit available to them. Plus the historic low 4.75 interest rate we are seeing now, is a very real window of opportunity especially coupled with the current prices of homes on the market.
Active Listings
While the number of new listings was up 190 over Feb. There were 230 more closed sales meaning we once again are seeing a reduction on the inventory. I’ll publish the Absorption Rates tomorrow. They are an even better indicator of where we have been and how we are rapidly approaching “Normal Inventory Levels”.
The year over year figures are showing us a positive trend. (Positive if you are a buyer anyway).
The average sale price has dropped over $50,000 in the last year. The units sold as mentioned above is only 30 less than last year and that gap will close over the next couple of weeks. The median sale price indicates more affordable housing compared to last year and the number of pending contract have an * because of the apples to oranges comparison yet going on. (For those that don’t yet know, last summer the MLS changed the reporting of Pending contracts to be only those that “went” pending during the month instead of all pending contracts. Some of which could have been pending for several months and were counted each month till they closed) We will be at an Apples to Apples comparison in about 3 months. Till then, to have the restricted criteria this close to the old way of reporting is actually indicates a PLUS and not a NEGATIVE.
Overall, Prices are down, Inventories are coming down, interest rates are down and Absorption Rates are getting very close to normal overall, and in some areas they are below the 6 month inventory rule of thumb for a normal market.
Could there be a housing shortage in Tucson yet in 2009? Wouldn’t that just frost the cookies of the buyers that have been waiting and waiting and waiting for prices to go back up. It looks like the wait is about over.
April 17th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Glad to hear that we impressed you this month Mr. Smith. Keep up the great blogs and thank you for your support! ~spw
April 17th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Stats Guy,
You are welcome : )