Tucson MLS Statistics for October 2007
November 15, 2007
Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-october-2007 , tucson-real-estate-october-2007
If you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!
The Tucson MLS Statistics report was released yesterday November 13, 2007. The data was actually gathered on November 5th.
One of the annoying things I’ve been tracking over the past year is the continuing discrepancies of the data in the report. This is NOT Due to the Tucson MLS. It is due to Tucson Brokerages NOT TURNING IN THEIR SALES in a timely manner. For example last month it was reported there were 683 Total Unit sales for September 07, but today a query on the solds for September indicates there were 752 units sold in September. This is 69 more sales than were reported. When the total reported is only 683 an additional 69 sales is significant. For October we find 790 Total Units being reported. I just pulled the stats from the MLS and it is showing 840 Total Units for October 07 which is an additional 50 sales.
I think the Tucson MLS should set the date for sales to be turned in and fine brokerages which don’t turn in those sales by the date indicated.
Tucson MLS Statistics September 07 - October 07 Summary
| Category |
Sept
2007 |
Oct
2007 |
Diff.
|
| Avg. Sale Price | $279,025 | $262,251 | - $16,774 |
| Total Units Sold | 752 | 840 | + 88 |
| Median Sale Price | $215,000 | $210,000 | - $5,000 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 73 | 70 | - 3 |
| Pending Contracts | 989 | 993 | + 4 |
| Active Listings | 9,190 | 9,313 | + 123 |
| New Listings | 2,497 | 2,399 | - 98 |
Average Sale Price
The average sale price in October 2007 was $262,251 which is a significant drop from September of $16,774 on the average. For the year the average sale price is $274,480. In 2006 the average for the YTD October was $271,637.
I know there was an 8 million dollar sale in the paper recently here in Tucson and some will think this sale has skewed the figures for the average sale price. This IS NOT the case. That particular home was never listed in the Tucson MLS. If it isn’t listed it isn’t included in the data or the reporting. So that sale did not impact this report or average sale price.
Total Units Sold
I talked about the Total Units sold above. We had 840 Total Units sold in October with 752 Units sold in September. Eighty eight more Total Units were sold in October. This is partly due to the pickup in the market from early winter visitors buying second homes, and some mortgages which were delayed in September because of the mortgage crisis that hit Tucson and the rest of the country. Not so much in people not qualifying for loans as loans being funded at a slower rate while the industry continues to reorganize. We know this mess came about due to de-regulation of the mortgage industry. It is like playing a game with almost no rules and the ability to make up rules as you go along. However, this game is not being played in a vacuum and it has found itself as a industry trying to create new rules that will work and help the industry survive. Don’t ever expect to see Sub-prime and Alt A loans again, at least not in our historical lifetimes.
Median Sale Price
This is $210,000 for October, down $5,000 from September and down $1,500 from October 06. Considering the state of the Tucson Real Estate Market and the National Real Estate Market adding into the mix the Mortgage Crisis of 2007 and Tucson’s housing market is amazingly resilient.
Pending Contracts
Pending contracts climbed again this month slightly over last month, but were 26.98% higher than last year in October. Pending Contracts continue to be the leading indicator of the market and are showing strong growth each month this year over last year. The mortgage crisis dented this considerably. Taking this into the calculation and still showing almost 27% higher pendings than last year is a good sign of strength in the Tucson Real Estate Market.
Active Listings/New Listings
There are 123 more active listings in October than in September to put the number at 9,313. We continue to find lisitngs that aren’t built yet, and listings that are not on keysafe and by appointment only. In essence those aren’t listings. They are active listing number inflators. New listings were down by 98 over September with 2,399 new listings on the market for the month.
Here are the numbers for Year Over Year
Tucson MLS Statistics Oct 06 - Oct 07 Summary
| Category |
Oct
2006 |
Oct
2007 |
Diff.
|
| Avg. Sale Price | $266,854 | $262,251 | - $4,603 |
| Total Units Sold | 1,095 | 830 | - 265 |
| Median Sale Price | $211,500 | $210,000 | - $1,500 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 50 | 70 | + 20 |
| Pending Contracts | 782 | 993 | + 211 |
| Active Listings | 8,766 | 9,313 | + 527 |
| New Listings | 2,776 | 2,399 | - 377 |
The Apples to Oranges of Statistics will continue till May 08.
There are two areas that are not what they appear to be because of the limiting of the reporting area to just Tucson since May 07.
Active Listings were reported to be down by .25% from 9,336 to 9,313. But when we break down the 9,336 to just the Tucson area we get 8,766 compared to 9,313. The Active Listings have actually increased over last year, NOT decreased.
New Listings were similar but to a lesser degree, there were 2,776 new listings for the Tucson area in Oct. 06 compared to 2,399 for Oct. 07.
Quick November Summary
As of this moment at 9 am. November 15, the Tucson MLS is showing 213 closed contracts with an average sale price of $292,392. There are a lot of buyers in the market right now. Many of them buying second homes or retirement homes here in Tucson. This is what I call the early snowbird market. The second market starts in January. This is a good time to have your home on the market if you are in a gated age restricted community. The devaluation of the American Dollar against other currencies has made this a very good time for foreign investors to purchase homes in our warmer climate.
Unless there is another major shoe dropping from the sky in the mortgage industry we should see good numbers for November.
November 15th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Oh, here you are, Dave!:-)
As of this moment at 9 am. November 15, the Tucson MLS is showing 213 closed contracts
holy guacamoly… that’s the middle of the month if I’m not mistaken…
November 15th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Oh, I should have included that almost 75% of all sales are entered in the last week of the month and the first week of the next month.
If you don’t have access to MLS you wouldn’t know that 213 by this time of the month is actually a good number. Last month it was less than 200.
November 15th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
OK, that sounds a lot better!:-)
November 16th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Hi Dave!
So when are the prices going to drop? Sales are still entirely too slow to call the market anything except; sick. Its the pricessssssssssss!
Have a nice weekend.
November 17th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Dave,
Would you explain how you run your search??
I am unable to get either the numbers you mention nor the ones TAR puts in their report.
November 17th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Steve,
Almost all the numbers are right out of the MLS monthly stats report. The only exceptions are where the numbers don’t add up because of the limiting of the areas or the date the data is pulled.
When it comes to area like active listings or new listings I go back to the previous years report and subtract out the numbers that are outside the Tucson area.
For closed sales I run a search in MLS
Residential
The Tucson Areas
$1000 or more price
from 10/01/07 to 10/31/07
I have this search saved so I can call it up and run it.
I change the dates to what month I’m looking for.