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July was better than June 2009 for Tucson real estate. The trend of increased sale prices and decreased inventories continued for July 2009.
They say there is no news like old news, but since the media persists on being at least 6 months behind in reporting where things really are in the Tucson Real Estate Market I’m not that far behind having spent almost a week in California.
I read with great interest the quote from Kimberly Clifton in an article from KOLD News titled “New real estate numbers lack drama” I really think there is plenty of drama in the numbers, maybe it should have read “lacks Trama”.
“But there’s also concern it may be a false number. It could be many people who would normally put their house on the market are holding back because prices are so low. But when they decide to sell, it could cause a glut.
But that’s speculation, like so much of the market these days.”
The bolding is mine, so instead of emphasizing the reality of the positives in this months number lets focus on a couple could be’s and a speculation. Nice. And this from the Tucson MLS Association president.
You all know I don’t sugar coat the numbers or ever paint the rosy picture of “now’s a great time to buy real estate”. I do believe when there are good things report it is Okay to report them.
Here’s where we are from June to July 2009
The average sale price has gone up. The Total unit sales has gone up, (by more than the report). The median sale price has gone up. The active listings have gone down, the new listings have gone down. The pending contracts are down over June, but this is typical for summer in Tucson. What isn’t typical is how high July of 09 is over July 08 for pending contracts.
These are all good solid numbers. Maybe not dramatic numbers, You would prefer the bottom dropping out or hyper inflation in the market for Drama? I think not.
Year over Year
Yes, the market was over valued in 08. Everyone knew it including the lenders who were still making the last of the “fog a spoon get a loan” loans. But look at the number of Pending contracts this year over last. Please remember this is after an economic meltdown and crisis, this is after lending practices have tightened considerably and 20% down is once again become a desirable, if not, required standard.
I can see with the new listings climbing up over last year by 163 this could be the one place where speculation might kick in that there are more sellers “waiting” in the wings to “glut” the market. But a glut of homes would reduce selling prices as supply increased.
Anybody know any sellers who have been waiting to put their home on the market so they can get less for it? I don’t.
Overall, the number show a slow steady recovery of the market despite the number of REO and short sales.
The article said:
“Nearly one in three homes sold in Tucson these days is a foreclosed home. There’s a good side and bad side to that.”
That would be over 30% of the homes. I do hope this wasn’t Kimberly Clifton saying this. Especially since the Tucson MLS numbers for July show around 16% for both REO and Short Sale transactions.
Absorption Rates will be posted later today or tomorrow morning. For the curious I won’t bait you like I did last month. The overall absorption rate in Tucson for June was 5.44 months inventory. July is 5.13. Yes, that is pretty close to 6 months inventory, Oh, wait, is 5.13 less than 6?
