Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates August 2007
September 17, 2007
Post Tags: tucson-absorption-rates-August-2007 , tucson-real-estate-market-trends-August-2007
If you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!
Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates
July 07 to Aug 07
|
Area
|
Aug Listed |
Aug
Sold |
Aug
AR |
July Listed |
July
Sold |
July
AR |
Sold YTD
|
| N | 725 | 78 | 9.29 | 696 | 88 | 7.90 | 825 |
| NE | 425 | 50 | 8.50 | 405 | 74 | 5.47 | 496 |
| NW | 2348 | 265 | 8.86 | 2539 | 279 | 9.1 | 2367 |
| XNW | 114 | 12 | 9.50 | 99 | 16 | 6.18 | 118 |
| C | 1125 | 192 | 5.80 | 1085 | 202 | 5.37 | 1581 |
| E | 516 | 79 | 6.53 | 502 | 64 | 7.84 | 677 |
| S | 586 | 48 | 12.20 | 555 | 67 | 8.28 | 673 |
| SE | 810 | 92 | 8.80 | 763 | 105 | 7.26 | 912 |
| SW | 745 | 47 | 15.85 | 722 | 60 | 12.03 | 522 |
| XSW | 330 | 15 | 22.00 | 305 | 23 | 13.26 | 221 |
| XS | 630 | 80 | 7.875 | 634 | 56 | 11.32 | 580 |
| W | 523 | 55 | 9.50 | 500 | 57 | 8.77 | 499 |
| XW | 68 | 6 | 11.33 | 67 | 7 | 9.57 | 64 |
| 8,954 | 1,019 | 8.78 | 8,692 | 1,098 | 7.91 |
Our friend the little rubber ducky makes his appearance again in August 07. This time he is floating even higher than last month as you can see from the overall absorption rate increase for the entire Tucson Area.
Ducky appears when ever the absorption rate decreases over the previous month. The overall increase was from 7.91 to 8.75 months. This is about 3 weeks.
Here is how it breaks down for August 07.
There were 262 more active listings in August than July and 79 fewer sales for a net swing of 341 units in difference from July.
N, NE, XNW, C, S, SE, SW, XSW, W, XW, decreased Absorption
The E had the greatest difference with a swing of 3.4 month longer to absorb inventory than in June.
NW, E, XS increased Absorption
The XS dropped their months on market by 3.44. Going from 11.32 mo. to 7.875 mo.
August continued to be a traumatic month for the Mortgage industry as well as the Stock Market. There is much anticipation of the Federal Reserve Dropping the Prime Interest Rate, but even if it does it will not have any effect on the Real Estate Market. It might make Wall Street happy for a day or two, but Wall Street memories are short and good new results short lived.
Now it is the middle of September and the roller coaster is still in motion, it is going to be interesting to see what the September number bring. In case you didn’t notice I said the same thing last month just replaced August with September.
The Year Over Year figures are continuing to show convergence of the data from last year even with the Mortgage Meltdown in August. This is good and I’ll be writing more on this shortly.
Enjoy the duck, with any luck you won’t see him again for awhile, hopefully a long while. Sorry we all had to see him again this month.
September 17th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Thanks for the numbers, Dave. The picture is getting uglier… just as some of us expected.
September 17th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Concerned,
Actually the picture pretty good. Not compared to June, but July and August are traditionally slow months. September numbers last year tanked. If the September numbers this year are better than last, and I think they will be, then we will have turned a corner. Last year Oct, Nov, December continued to see sharp declines in sales and sharp increases in inventory.
August landed better than I thought it might with the Mortgage issues. As I stated in the stats report, we had two closings delayed for funding pushing those closings into Sept. They were due to the huge influx of business that Mortgage companies couldn’t handle when First Magnus closed and left a lot of borrowers scrambling to find new mortgage companies.
September 18th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Nothing personal, Dave, but the picture appears to look good only to people with vested interest in RE as a profession.
September 18th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
With every market the perception of good or bad depends on where you are in the market. In 2005 and much of 06 if you were trying to buy a home in Tucson the picture wasn’t good.
We had some buyers back then who put offers on 5 homes in a week and didn’t get a single one. They were offering $5,000 to $10,000 more than asking price and still not getting the offer accepted. They left Tucson and many have not come back. For those people then Tucson was ugly.
Most real estate agents are either representing buyers or representing sellers. Many are now looking for another career. This is a market for professionals.
If you mean “the picture appears to look good only to people with vested interest in RE as a profession”. I would add many buyers in the market right now think the picture looks very good.
Many RE “professional” I’m using this word in quotes as those that have sold real estate in the past couple of years, are those now looking for their next career.
The number for Year Over Year are about to flop over where this years number are going to be better than last years. This is what I meant by pretty good considering the Mortgage meltdown, which was coming, and much needed. The Mortgage industry had to stop giving loans to anyone that could fog a spoon.
There will continue to be a shake out, but this is good. Tucson isn’t going to be hit any where near as hard as other parts of the country and many that have held off buying and moving to Tucson can now do so.
I’m expecting to see a continued strengthening in our our market in the end of the 3rd quarter continuing into next year.
September 18th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
Hi Dave!
Obviously, I agree with Concerned.
{”I would add many buyers in the market right now think the picture looks very good.”}
These are the same people that think an ARM is something a good baseball player has. If they can read and think critically, they know that buying know is catching a falling knife.
{The number for Year Over Year are about to flop over where this years number are going to be better than last years.}
Not sure what you mean here… but how can you say anything is close when the metric used to calculate the stats have changed considerably in the same time frame. It simply doesn’t add up. Also, the same stats you quote… conveniently leave out new construction. If you have failed to see it let me remind you: They are still building like crazy, and offering crazy incentives.
{”Tucson isn’t going to be hit any where near as hard as other parts of the country and many that have held off buying and moving to Tucson can now do so.”}
LMAO!!!! Again, not trying to slam you… but are you serious? Did you not see any of the “bubble Market” reports? Tucson was ranked 16th or higher in bubble markets for a number of publications; google it. Not only that, Dave, But basic economic price to wage ratios still have merit and Tucson’s is way out of whack.
I was in San Diego this weekend; The epicenter of the bubble. Its a mess and we are right on its heels. Along with the Inland Empire, Sac, Phoenix, Las Vegas and others.
Who is moving here again? Oh yeah, the people that can’t sell their houses… right.
None of the above even matters…
The FED just lowered the rates… your savings account just took a 1% haircut along with mine in purchasing power. I was a glimmer in the 70’s the last time something like this happened. Lowering interest rates in a commodity bull market is NOT good.Couple that to a credit crunch and liquidity problem and
This rally will not hold and the US economy is in deeper dog doo than you or even I can imagine. Helicopter Ben knows it.
September 18th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Also you might want to check out ml-implode.com …
157 lenders have closed their doors since late 2006. First Magnus is a tiny blip on the radar.
September 19th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
steep home price cuts coming
“There is no bubble in Tucson, There is no bubble in Tucson, There is no bubble in Tucson…”
September 19th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
In 2005 and much of 06 if you were trying to buy a home in Tucson the picture wasn’t good.
We had some buyers back then who put offers on 5 homes in a week and didn’t get a single one. They were offering $5,000 to $10,000 more than asking price and still not getting the offer accepted. They left Tucson and many have not come back. For those people then Tucson was ugly.
Actually, IMHO it’s quite the opposite. Those could NOT buy then can count themselves lucky.
September 19th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
I know these number are horrible aren’t they. I just found this list of the most desireable cities in Arizona in which to live and Tucson is last on the list.
This must make Tucson the least desireable city in Arizona in which to live.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2007/states/AZ.html
September 19th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
There are no emoticons, but I’d imagine you’re kiddin’, Dave, right…
September 19th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
September 19th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
Btw, how come Yuma’s not on your list…?!;-) It has us beat.;-)
September 19th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
And, btw, Dave, I hadn’t looked at realtytimes for a while and just did. Considering the most optimistic bunch gathers there, how come Tucson’s votes match Tampa Bay’s? You vote for “falling prices” as well. The only place with worse votes is Miami. Even Vegas, LA, and San Diego look better and we’re talking about the votes of RE agents here…
September 19th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
Simple, Not my list? Guess Money.cnn never heard of Yuma.
I don’t know what you are talking about on realtytimes and votes. Unless you mean those stupid how’s the market. Nobody ever changes those after the first time they fill them and and honestly most of the are idiots that don’t have a clue about the state of the market, they just know they aren’t selling so it is bad.
September 20th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
I know it’s not “your list”, Dave…
Yeah, the votes “how’s the market” I was talking about. What’d you mean they don’t change…? Of course they do. I looked them up in 2005 and boy, did they look different! They might not change as often as they should, but they still do. Since you’re optimistic, for instance, how come you don’t change your vote…?
I think it would be quite irresponsible of the participants to not keep them up-to-date. After all potential buyers and/or sellers sometimes take a look at them. Chances are most of them would be the kind of people who wouldn’t dig any deeper (not the unpleasant kind like me and bobby joe.;-)) and it’s not fair to give them wrong impression. Not that these votes mean much, but it never hurts to see more opinions, particularly if one happens to have some idea about the participants.