Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates December 2007

calendar January 26, 2008

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TP holderTucson Real Estate Absorption Rates
Nov 07 to Dec 07

Area

Dec Listed
Dec
Sold
Dec
AR

Nov Listed
Nov
Sold
Nov
AR
Sold YTD
N 754 51 14.78 758 73 10.38 1079
NE 418 34 12.29 449 43 10.44 668
NW 2338 174 13.43 2474 175 14.12 3188
XNW 117 11 10.63 123 6 20.50 154
C 1000 93 10.75 1110 100 11.10 2015
E 466 52 8.96 504 46 10.95 893
S 570 37 15.40 615 49 12.55 909
SE 700 72 9.72 790 77 10.25 1242
SW 733 46 15.90 751 55 13.65 741
XSW 371 26 14.20 372 20 18.60 311
XS 643 46 13.90 665 61 10.90 799
W 524 35 14.97 541 45 12.02 661
XW 63 4 15.75 68 9 7.55 88
  8,708 749 11.62 9,238 770 11.99  

Tucson Real Estate 2007 Absorption Rate Summary

It really all depends on what area of Tucson you look at each month who is gaining and who is loosing ground. Overall there was a net gain of a few days. From 11.99 months to 11.62 months. But and this could be a big butt : ) the numbers are based on reporting that is incomplete. The reported sales for the month of December was 682. As of this writing there were 749 actual closed transaction in December. Those 67 closed transactions are not in the report as a whole or contained in the break down of the various areas of Tucson. Just a single sale in an area with only a small number of listings can make a very big difference.

For example the XW had 63 listings and 4 were reported sold for an absorption rate of 15.75, but if one of the 67 is in the XW then it would be 63 listings and 5 sold for an absorption rate of 12.6 months. Therefore, you can see in some locations a single sale can represent a drop of more than 3 months in the absorption rate for that area.

The last thing to note with regard to December 2007 absorption rate. December being the last month of the year many listings are set to expire at the end of the year. This would show a decrease in the overall number of active listings for the end of the month which also contributes to the Absorption Rate calculation.

I like looking at absorption rates for a much clearer picture of what is going on in the Tucson Real Estate Market for 11 months of the year. But the last month of the year, it is a toss-up. Late reporting continues to be an issue. But there is some good news on that froint coming into 2008.

There is now a fine up to $15,000 if status changes are turned in more than 48 hours after they occurred. This is a good thing. Now lets hope the Tucson MLS has the stones to enforce it.

A rule on the books that is not enforced is worse than no rule at all.

By Dave Smith in Tucson Real Estate Market

No Responses to “Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates December 2007”

  1. concerned Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    Oh, here they are! Thanks, Dave.

    I didn’t expect miracles. Besides, I already saw them on the housechick’s blog. Should’ve thanked her. Since she reads here, too, I’ll use the opportunity – thanks, housechick! :-)

    You’re right that a lot of things contribute to deceiving stats… For instance, I don’t think the situation in the SE is much better. The closings there lately have been mostly on new houses. Now that I’m thinking about it, though… the houses in construction were never listed on the MLS as being active, were they? Only some inventory homes get listed.

    As far as this

    There is now a fine up to $15,000 if status changes are turned in more than 48 hours after they occurred. This is a good thing.

    Yeah, it’s a good thing. That’s how human nature works – many times we don’t put our act together before being slapped on the hand. This is a pretty good slap, so I expect it to work, unless you guys make way too much money to care. ;-)

  2. David Smith Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 4:05 pm

    concerned,

    LOL to your last statement. There are a lot of agents who now have real estate as a second carrier and are on to something else to pay the bills.

    It is either the carrot or the cattle prod, to bad for most it has to be the prod.

    Geez, you really rub it in don’t you now you have to thank the chick on my blog : ) You know I’m laughing here. Kelley is always welcome and so are you.

  3. concerned Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 4:19 pm

    He-he, I’ve just never said anything on her blog and I better keep it this way because I waste my time too much online as it is and get easily addicted. ;-)

    You didn’t say anything about the closings on new houses. They don’t affect the numbers, do they? The houses in construction, unless they’re inventory homes, are not being counted as active listings on the MLS, correct?

  4. concerned Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 4:25 pm

    Btw, Dave, watch out ’cause the housechick may disown you, too! ;-)

    4. One of my biggest pet peeves is when my name is misspelled. There’s two E’s in both names, people: kEllEy koEhlEr. Ironically, my middle name is pronounced ‘lee’ but is spelled “Leigh.”

    http://www.mytucsonblog.com/

  5. David Smith Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 4:28 pm

    concerned,

    LOL, I’ll fix that right away. Like I care.

    You are right, unless new construction is in the MLS and usually those are spec homes those transactions are not contained in the report.

    This means there is a lot more homes actually being sold in Tucson than indicated since there have been a lot of new construction closings this past year.

  6. David Smith Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 4:30 pm

    Now you are even putting links to her blog in the comments!!!!. Is this really Kelley? Come on admit it. LOL

  7. concerned Says:
    January 27th, 2008 at 5:36 pm

    Thanks, Dave. Good to know. Then the SE is doing OK.

    Nah, I’m not Kelley. Just didn’t wanna post it without the source. You never know in these lawsuit-crazy days… ;-)

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