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Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates
June 07 to July 07
Area | July Listed | July | July | June Listed | June | June | Sold YTD |
| N | 696 | 88 | 7.90 | 678 | 128 | 5.29 | 737 |
| NE | 405 | 74 | 5.47 | 406 | 59 | 6.88 | 442 |
| NW | 2539 | 279 | 9.1 | 2343 | 310 | 7.55 | 2081 |
| XNW | 99 | 16 | 6.18 | 104 | 15 | 6.93 | 105 |
| C | 1085 | 202 | 5.37 | 1145 | 202 | 5.66 | 1377 |
| E | 502 | 64 | 7.84 | 476 | 107 | 4.44 | 596 |
| S | 555 | 67 | 8.28 | 491 | 73 | 6.72 | 616 |
| SE | 763 | 105 | 7.26 | 772 | 116 | 6.65 | 812 |
| SW | 722 | 60 | 12.03 | 704 | 46 | 15.30 | 467 |
| XSW | 305 | 23 | 13.26 | 309 | 28 | 11.03 | 205 |
| XS | 634 | 56 | 11.32 | 664 | 70 | 9.48 | 484 |
| W | 500 | 57 | 8.77 | 503 | 63 | 7.98 | 441 |
| XW | 67 | 7 | 9.57 | 63 | 8 | 7.87 | 58 |
| 8,692 | 1,098 | 7.91 | 8,665 | 1,226 | 7.07 |
Our friend the little rubber ducky makes his appearance for the first time in July 07. It is our hope he doesn’t show up often. Ducky appears when ever the absorption rate decreases over the previous month. Granted it wasn’t much of a decrease which is good, but just showing a small part of the ducky for a small decrease gets tricky.
Here is how it breaks down for July 07.
There were 27 more active listings in July than June and 128 fewer sales for a net swing of 155 units in difference from June. This difference added up to a 0.84 up tick in the time listings are absorbed into the market; going from 7.07 months to 7.91 months.
It is almost a flip flop from Decreased to Increased areas since June 07.
N, NW, E, S, SE, XS, W, XW, XSW decreased Absorption
The E had the greatest difference with a swing of 3.4 month longer to absorb inventory than in June.
NE, XNW, C, SW increased Absorption
The SW dropped their months on market by 3.27. Going from 15.30 mo. to 12.03 mo.
Given all the bad media coverage of the Mortgage industry and Sub-prime lenders and loans. Throw in the herd mentality of “investors” in the stock market on its wild roller coaster ride to see the Tucson Real Estate Market remaining fairly stable is good.
Now it is the middle of August and the roller coaster is still in motion, it is going to be interesting to see what the August number bring. I think it will be pretty similar to July.
I’m watching with interest to see how the Year over Year figures are going to be reported as August began the deep slide in many categories of the Tucson Real Estate Market last year which continued through December.
Enjoy the duck, with any luck you won’t see him again for awhile, hopefully a long while.
Hey, it’s true – you ask, you’ll be given!;-)) Thanks.
Things don’t look good, though… Again, it depends on who hopes for what.;-) This flip-flop IS strange. What happened? All of a sudden this month people’s preferences changed? Most likely it’s not the preferences, but the pockets… They got shallower. As cute as your duckie is, it’s probably best if he goes away to play with his buddies in the pond.
Actually the flip flop is expected, because for the past 4 out of 5 years July has been a slow month. I didn’t post the difference, but in most cases it was by 2 to 3 hundred fewer homes in July than June, so a -128 is actually better than the past few years.
I think a lot has to do with the monsoon humidity driving people out of town and many take July for their vacations before the early start of the school year here in Tucson.
I agree, let the ducky go. . .
Actually the flip flop is expected, because for the past 4 out of 5 years July has been a slow month. I didn’t post the difference, but in most cases it was by 2 to 3 hundred fewer homes in July than June, so a -128 is actually better than the past few years.
I’ve noticed July has been slower before, too, but then August is about the only potentially good month of the year left. I meant the flip-flop between the East and the Southwest side by 3+ months of inventory up and down respectively in comparison to last month. I don’t believe the East side has become less desirable (or North for that matter) all of a sudden. It’s just pricier than the SW.
The flip flop has a lot to do with a great June for that area. It is back to just below April level for the E.
Apr 7.89
May 5.70
Jun 4.44
Jul 7.84
So it is a big jump back for the area, but not a concern for the overall picture of only 0.84 swing for Tucson in July