Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates November 2008

December 28, 2008

Post Tags: Tucson Real Estate , Tucson Real Estate Market , Tucson-Absorption-Rates-November-2008

More absorbent than a rubber duck. Able to hold more water than a grain of sand. Got the idea?

While there were fewer new listing than last year the number of closed transactions in November were the lowest in many years. This resulted in an overall increase in inventory of 8 more homes on the market in November than in October. This is a positive but as I pointed out there were a lot of people that were sitting on the fence or even canceled contracts thinking the interest rates were going to fall to 4.5% due to a rumor that grew from a proposal sent to the government by the National Association of Realtors to help stimulate the Housing Market.

In the short term it had the opposite effect.

Here are the numbers for November 2008

Area	Nov Listed	Nov Sold	Nov AR	Oct Listed	Oct Sold	Oct AR	Sold YTD

N	782	45	17.36	764	48	15.91	789
NE	454	27	16.81	456	37	12.32	422
NW	2011	157	12.80	1966	214	9.18	2527
XNW	139	10	13.90	140	12	17.00	98
C	1007	69	14.59	1027	94	10.92	1355
E	456	52	8.76	453	52	8.71	719
S	552	47	11.74	527	67	7.86	672
SE	622	65	9.56	618	68	9.08	954
SW	594	63	9.42	604	77	7.84	761
XSW	310	16	19.37	310	30	10.33	265
XS	548	49	11.18	564	71	7.94	678
W	429	33	13.00	460	50	9.20	493
XW	78	2	39.00	82	3	27.30	54
	7,996	635	12.59	7,988	823	9.70

December is almost over and the number of closed transactions for December are looking better than November, yes that’s a good thing. We are seeing more activity in the market as some buyers now realize that 4.5% 30 year fixed rate wasn’t/isn’t going to happen and a rate at or just above 5% is remarkable.

It will be interesting to see where the Tucson and national real estate markets go in January. It will also be an interesting February and March watching the influence of the new administration on the markets.

By Dave Smith in Tucson Real Estate Market

4 Responses to “Tucson Real Estate Absorption Rates November 2008”

Jeff in Hawaii Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Dave – We had a better than expected December. I think it may have even been better than last year November was just horrible and I am hoping that will be the worst month of this market adjustment we are going through.

I am (hoping) optimistic that the second quarter will be the time that the markets begin to change and there will be confidence back in the market again

I definitely think that will be the turning point for the stock market after the bad first quarter earnings.

Hoping the real estate market will do the same.
chris swenson Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Thank you for the useful information & you are right, Tucson is a healthy RE market. As a buyer, I could use some lower prices in this economy. You are working in one of the best markets in this country.

If there were 635 closings in November & there are 551 thus far in December, are there really that many at the end of the month to make December look better than November at this time?

Best wishes for the New Year and I appreciate your Blog.

Chris

Chris
Dave Smith Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Chris,

Yes, The last three days of the month usually brings about 20% to 25% of closed transactions. It has to do with when most people want to close and the time lag before they have to make their first monthly payment.

December is also the last month of the year and there are a lot of closing scheduled for the last couple days of the year.

If December is even close to a typical month there should be somewhere between 650 and 750 closed transactions for the month.

I just checked and even today on a Sunday there were 7 transaction entered into the system. I’ll be posting in the right sidebar the daily updates. We often see closings for the previous month being entered up to two weeks after they close.

There is a $250 penalty for each closing entered after the deadline established by the Tucson MLS, even so there are usually 15 to 20 closings which are late entries into the system.

A great New Year and a prosperous 2009 to you as well.

Thanks for your kind words about the blog. It helps keep me writing.

Dave
Dave Smith Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Jeff,

Only time will tell. If you had asked me 4 months ago if I would be buying gas in December for $1.38 a gallon I would have wondered about your sanity. Now . . .