If the boomers are in the Stock market their liquidity is pretty much gone. If they moved into money markets they are holding with funds which makes Tucson real estate look like a good investment with low prices and low interest rates.

The first 100 days of the Obama administration will be interesting. I am bearish on the economy as a hole. But the recovery will start in housing, I think almost every economist has stated such. This means it will lead the way. Real Estate in Tucson started being recessionary in 2006 and it took a couple of years for the rest of the economy to be shaken.

Seems like about 14 month periods with the Mortgage meltdown in Aug 2007 and the rest of the financial sector following in Oct 2008.

One thing is certain, it won’t be boring in 2009. As you say TWT.

Dave

Chris

The trend it down. But there is some speculation it will go back up in 2010 as more ARM loans reset. However, everyone knows they are scheduled to reset and by then the Obama administration should have a mechanism in place to allow those home owners to reset at a very low interest rate instead of the 12% or higher that many are scheduled to go to.

Three months behind should be showing up in pre-foreclosures. There are new programs going into place now that will allow homeowners in trouble to get assistance before they get behind on payments and are already in a deep hole. There will still be some that simply walk away. They never intended to do anything but hold the home and flip it for a profit. Their intention when buying wasn’t as a homeowner but as speculators. That is one number we don’t know.

We also don’t know how many homeowners were talked into taking out a mortgage. There were some who had their homes almost paid for or were even debt free that took on a mortgage. There should be a program to help these (mostly retired and elderly) keep their homes.

The traditional measure of affordability does not apply to Tucson. It hasn’t for decades. Here is why. We have a geographic climate which makes it a perfect place to spend the winter. There is a higher number of second homes in Tucson than almost anywhere else in the country. We also have a high number of people paying cash for those homes because they are already retired or will retire in the next 5 years. It is projected that pima county will continue to grow with Boomers coming here to retire for at least the next 10 years. They don’t need jobs. They do desire the weather. They also are coming from parts of the country where real estate and property taxes are much higher than Tucson. To them our homes are very affordable.

Usually this group of people are in some ways insulated from the economy. Like my Dad who is retired and has all his money in CD’s. He isn’t making as much on his money but he isn’t loosing any either.

Chris, I’m not offeneded. You ask some great questions. We actually work with about 80% buyers and 20% sellers. We are relocation specialists working with a lot of buyers from out of state and even out of country. It is one of the reasons I know why the traditional rule doesn’t apply here.

There is a lot more I could say about why we have and will continue to have a lower number of foreclosures in Tucson and Pima county than say in Maricopa. If you want I’ll be glad to address this topic in an email to you as this comment has already grown quite long. I think I covered most of your points.

http://tinyurl.com/8kwu2c this is a link to an article on investing in Tucson in which I contributed a lot of content on this topic.

Thanks for your input it helps to further the discussion and clarify some of the issues.

Have a Great Weekend (it is the weekend again isn’t it?)

Dave

– The Arizona Star as you say is shrinking and in trouble like most newspapers in this country. Sensationalism will not help, good reporting might.

–So the rate in Pima is 2+% and Pinal 6+%, more important to this buyer, what is the trend? Up or down?

–Unknown is the pre-forclosure number. Those behind one to three or more months in mortgage payments. No way to get this information, but it would be great to have for knowing trends.

–Are we anywhere near the three times incomes for the price of housing in your area. This is the traditional measure of affordability & in this economy I doubt we will do much better that that when we “settle out”. I better do some research. :>)

– Please don’t be offended when I say you sound like you might work with more sellers than buyers. Either way, I sincerely appreciate your site.

Chris