Tucson MLS Statistics for June 2008
July 13, 2008
Post Tags: tucson-housing-market-June-2008 , tucson-mls-statistics-June-2008 , tucson-real-estate-June-2008
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The June statistics continue to show a decline in the average sale price with an increase in total closed transactions each month since January of this year. This month the report shows 1034 closed transactions. As of this writing the MLS itself shows 1048 transactions.
While it is good to see the number increasing in closed transaction each month there was a very large drop off in the number of pending sales during June. This might be a seasonal issue with the end of the school year and the number of people on vacation. It might also be an indication that when the temperatures climb over 100 each day and stay there buyers are less likely to want to get in the car and go see homes which do not have air conditioning turned on.
It is one of those wait and see issues. If July and August pending sales stay below 1000 or decline even below the 951 in June it is not a good indicator for the next quarter of this year. With only 951 pending sales in June it doesn’t look like there will be 1000 closed transactions in July. But there is enough to worry about in the country at this time so we won’t predict what the next couple of months holds at this time.
For the moment lets do the numbers:
Tucson MLS Statistics May 08 - June 08 Summary
| Category |
May
2008 |
June
2008 |
Diff.
|
| Avg. Sale Price | $250,803 | $257,499 | + $6,696 |
| Total Units Sold | 1045 | 1048 | + 3 |
| Median Sale Price | $201,000 | $200,000 | - $1,000 |
| Pending Contracts | 1485 | 951 | - 62 |
| Active Listings | 8,527 | 8,140 | - 387 |
| New Listings | 2,282 | 2,095 | - 187 |
I’m not going into the specific data point as I usually do each month. The ones which draw my attention this month are the Closed Transactions at 1048 and the decline in inventory of Active Listings to 8140. I’ll provide the absorption rate figures by area in a day or two. A quick look at the overall Absorption rate is is very positive at 7.88 months. It wasn’t to long ago this number was pushing over 12 months of inventory. There is good news in these absorption rates. More in a couple of days.
Tucson MLS Statistics June 07 - June 08 Summary
| Category |
June
2007 |
June
2008 |
Diff.
|
| Avg. Sale Price | $293,443 | $257,499 | - $35,944 |
| Total Units Sold | 1378 | 1048 | - 1102 |
| Median Sale Price | $225,000 | $200,000 | - $25,000 |
| Pending Contracts | 2053 | 951 | + 294 |
| Active Listings | 8,665 | 8,140 | - 1194 |
| New Listings | 2820 | 2,095 | - 678 |
I mentioned yesterday in a short post about Good news and Bad news in the local Tucson Real Estate Market, we can’t have it both ways when it comes to year over year figures. Saying last year was a bad year because of the lax mortgage practices allowing and even encouraging people that did qualify for a loan to get a loan to buy a house they couldn’t afford is not a positive way to look at last year figures over this years figures.
Once September 2008 arrives which will have figures after the Mortgage meltdown started will provide a better picture of what the last quarter of 2008 will hold for the Tucson real estate market. Right now I can understand the hesitance of potential buyers which don’t “have to buy” now to wait.
I called bottom on the Tucson Real Estate Market a couple of months ago and still think that was the bottom when all things are considered. Meaning Sale Prices have continued to come lower, but interests rates, loan fees and availability of loan financing have offset any decline in sale price making the total purchase price now higher each month. I don’t see this trend reversing any time soon.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:13 am
Hey Dave, just reading the latest, and providing an FYI. Pending sales are now being reported as Pending status that were entered in the “month” reported in the digest rather than all Pending listings in the MLS. I believe that this will give us a better display of monthly activity rather than what is sitting as pending for months on end. Big fan on the blog and keep up the good work. Of course, you know you can contact me with any discussion or questions that you may have. Scott
July 31st, 2008 at 11:25 am
Scott,
Thanks for the information on Pendings. That is a big sigh of relief for me. I think the new way of reporting is a much better metric of the market.
Thanks again. You are always welcome here. I really appreciate the way the Tucson MLS data and statistics have been evolving.