Tucson Economic Indicators
April 26, 2009
Statistics can tell you only so much
While I’m a numbers and stats guy there are times when I go for the more urbane approach to statistics.
This means there are non-scientific indicators of what is happening in an economy. One of those current indicators is blowing the roof off the “recession” indicator. It also indicates there are better times around the corner whether the prognosticators know it or not.
The number one indicator here in Tucson is the impending opening of . . . drumroll . . . are you ready for it . . . Cheesecake Factory.
Cheesecake Factory as Economic Indicator
Smart Money in there last issue showed how you could use restaurant profits and activity as an economic indicator. If it is good enough for them it is good enough for me. I read it and did not consider it a fluff piece (I take food very seriously) In that piece the slice of the industry showing the greatest difficulty dealing with the economic downturn to be the slice in which “Cheesecake Factory” abides.
So it is with great interest I turned my eye to the statistics concerning the opening of Cheesecake factory Tucson.
If there is one thing Tucsonans take seriously it is food. We might be lacks on Infrastructure and our highway planning (Now that is an oxymoron) consists of “Find a road that is open and tear it up”.
We build highways in Tucson on the PAYGO system. Which means it can take months or years to complete a project that in almost any other community would take weeks, months at the most. But I digress.
Human Behavior Dictates Economy
A couple of months ago I wrote a post about the new Cheesecake Factory being built at the Tucson Mall. Since then there is one abiding question on the hearts and minds of Tucsonans. And, it isn’t when is the Tucson Real Estate market going to hit bottom. No it is “When is Cheesecake Factory going to open?”
I get most of my daily traffic from that google query. I wish it was about the statistics or wanting to buy or sell real estate in Tucson, (and some of the traffic is for that). The one request that pops up day after day is “When will cheesecake factory open in Tucson”
What this indicates
If the economy in Tucson were really all that bad people would be wanting to know when the next Taco Bell is being built. But I don’t see that being asked at all.
Cheesecake Factory dominates the Google Searches, this tells me there is money to spend on Lemon Drop Martinis and big plates of Calimari and other drinks and comfort foods. The economy in Tucson has either bottomed out and beginning to show signs of recovery or people are willing to spend their last dime on cheesecake and wine. I’m betting on the first one.
