Tucson MLS Preliminary Closed Transactions July 2008
August 5, 2008
In about 12 hours the Stats for July will be pulled. Monday and Tuesday were the last two business days to get closed transactions entered in the system before the data pull. Usually we see between 50 and 75 sales a day entered after the end of the month before the data is pulled. Not so in July. There were very few (maybe 20) closed transactions entered on Tuesday August 5, 2008 for July.
The total at this time is 936 Closed Transactions for July 2008. I know there is the psychological level of 1000 closed transactions which for some it the “magic number” indictor for a good month. We will not hit that number this month. Does that mean the Tucson real estate market has taken a “turn for the worse” and to expect another shoe of some sort to drop? NO! has to be the answer when looking at the historical trend for closed transactions between June and July of each year.
July in Tucson is like January in Wisconsin
July is usually one of the hottest months in Tucson. June is the month families with children in school will often move to Tucson as soon as school is out. July on the other hand is a hot month. A month when you get worn out just going from house to house in and out of the AC in the car and often (too often) into a vacant house without any cooling or air moving. Some of these homes can be over 120 degrees inside. It is the opposite of looking at vacant homes in the dead of winter in Wisconsin.
June had 1034 closed transactions. July at the moment has 936, a difference of 98. That gap will close a little but not much over the next few days. However over the past 5 years July has been lower in closed transactions than June. A difference between 150 and 350 approximately in some years. Therefore a difference of less than 100 is the smallest gap between June and July in the past 5 years.
Pending Contracts Data Pull Changed in June of 2008
I also pulled the Pending 274, Active Contingent 677 and Active Capa 77 for a total of 1028.
In June there was a change to how Pending figures will be pulled in the future. In the past pending were for what was Pending, Active Contingent and Active Capa in the system. If a property had a three month close it could show up as pending for multiple months, creating a situation that did not provide an accurate picture of how many properties went under contract during the month. In June it changed to what “went” Pending, Active Contingent or Active Capa during the month. This is the reason the June Pending Sales count was so much lower than the previous months.
Why the lily pads? Because despite the rumors and media coverage of the National real estate market, Tucson is “Staying Afloat”.
