Tucson MLS Statistics for September 2009

September 2009 was a sigh of relief for the Tucson real estate market.   Why?   History.   It brought a close to the third quarter of 2009 and there doesn’t seem to be a chicken little in town this year yelling the sky is falling.   The market is far from perfect, but it isn’t collapsing.

It held it’s own against last month with only 18 fewer closed transactions.   It held it’s ground on last year with just 3 fewer.       But wait, wasn’t last year a total collapse of the market and we didn’t even close as many as last year?   I”m glad you asked that question.   Once again History.

• Year     Aug.       Sept.     Diff
• 2005       1807         1474         333
• 2006       1414         1095         319
• 2007       1084             769       315
• 2008           923             965       + 42
• 2009           980         962       – 18

The trend from Aug to Sept over the past 5 years tends to show a big drop from Aug to Sept.   last year was an exception as was this year.   But also not the 57 additional sales in Aug 09 over 08 with only 18 fewer transaction in Sept. 09   Thus the sigh of relief for the market in general.

Let’s Do the Numbers

August 09 to September 09

Pending contracts are holding nicely on into October.   This is our predictor for a couple of months into the future.   Active listings keep creeping down even thought he number of new listing crept down.   Average Sale price dropped another $2,871 as the number of short sales and REO properties increased in percentage again this month over last. Of the 962 closed transactions there were 85 Short Sales and 329 REO Properties.

Year Over Year

September 08 compared to September 09

These number speak for themselves.   We know the market is stabilizing.   The number of pending contracts combined with the falling inventory and number of new listings is a plus.   The falling average and median sale price is a plus if you are on the buying side of the equation.   But not as big a minus on the selling side as you might think for the resale market.   Yes, there are exceptions.   But most residential resales in market ready condition are doing quite well price wise even in this market.   Are they getting 2007 prices?   NO, but everyone says that market was a bubble and unrealistic.   So why do we compare today’s sale prices with an unrealistic past.   Expectations always seem to run counter to reality.

The Third Quarter Closed

Finally a few more numbers you might be interested in.   Third quarter over First

• Total unit sales are up 39.48%
• Total sales volume us up 34.52%
• Average Active listings down 19.99%
• Pending Contracts up 4.63% and over 09/08 up 59.45%

We are headed into one of our buying season with a greatly reduced available inventory in some areas.   It will be an interesting Forth quarter.