The statistics report just released is out of date. Being out of date also means that what was reported as up is down and what was down is up and I’m beginning to wonder if Tucson is really Whoville.
So my fellow Whovillians, let’s do the numbers.
The entire Tucson MLS Statistics Report for November 2010 is a PDF that you can view or save. I’ll stick to the main categories I usually cover in this monthly post. However, for a little something new I’ll add the summary from the front page of this months report. (This is what most copy and past as the entire report)
Below are some highlights from the November Statistics:
- The number of new listings decreased by 15.39% over October and decreased by 7.93% over November of last year.
- Total Sales Volume increased in November by 8.55% from $133,203,906 in October to $144,588,779 in November.
- Average Sales Price increased by 2.03% over October.
- Average List Price increased by 4.30% over October.
- Total unit sales increased in November by 6.38% from 752 in October to 800 in November.
- The median sales price decreased slightly by 0.07% over October. When compared to November of 2009, there was a decrease of 13.91%.
- Active listings increased slightly in November by 0.58% from 7,412 in October to 7,455 in November and up 17.40% over November of 2009.
I’m not big on reporting percentages. I prefer hard numbers. Therefore, I’ll cover the usual areas of the report with the hard numbers of the report itself and the actual data in the system as I write.
Total Unit Sales
I’ll cover this first because it will explain the difference in the rest of the numbers. October was reported at 752, but that number wasn’t updated to account for the entries for October made since the October report. Instead of 752 the actual number for October is 803, 51 more sales than were reported. The number for November was reported at 800, but since the report that number has grown to 826. The difference in the two months as it stands right now is 23 transactions.
Average Sale Price
Reported for November was $180,736 The average as of right now is $181,821 I little higher. But since October had 51 additional sales entered since the report the average reported at $177,133 actually $181,955. Higher than November not lower as reported. The 4% gain reported isn’t accurate. The reality is Average Sale Price is statistically flat.
Median Sale Price
The median reported, $139,900; the actual as of now $139,325. For October reported was $140,000, but now it is #139,775. The median also isn’t much different for the month over month figure.
New Listings / Active Listings
New listing decreased but no hard conclusions about the market can be reached from this. One reason. Many Banks withdrew their listings from the MLS and didn’t put any more properties on the market due to the ROBO signing scandal. I expect to see an influx of listings come January. (Many people don’t want to be showing their home during the holidays so they either defer listing till January or pull the home from the market in December and re-list in January. Even with the ROBO signing scandal, there are over 1000 more homes on the market in November of 2010 than there were in November 2009.
Pending Contracts (Now called Total Under Contract)
The number is more than 50% increase over November 2009. There were 1900 properties under contract; of that number 624 were actual pending sales. Meaning the only step left in the process was close of escrow. Active CAPA, 340 and Active Contingent, 926. The total that went under contract during the month is 1476. For November 2009 the total that went under contract was 947. The report compares total under contract for this year to new under contract during the month last year. That’s not an accurate or fair comparison. But going from 947 to 1476 is still showing movement in a positive direction.
REO and short sales continue to make up about 50% of sales for the month. It doesn’t look like that number will be changing in the near future.
Interest rates on 30 year fixed mortgages are moving upward. A few weeks ago 4.22 was attainable. Now it is about 4.85 and it could be above 5% by the first of the year.
For buyers on the fence still trying to “time the market” don’t forget to calculate the effect of the interest rate in your planning. If a property purchase price dropped by 1000 dollars the difference in the interest rate increase of 1/2 of a percent eats that up very quickly.
