Let's Do The Numbers (click to enlarge)
Pending Contracts a Crystal Ball
Everyone wants to see into the future. There are few ways to do it with any degree of accuracy.
Getting astronauts on the moon is a matter of mathematics. The guys on the ground using math know where the moon is going to be at a given time so they launch the astronauts in time for them to be at that “spot” at the same time.
Pending contracts aren’t that exacting. That’s why they are still called “Pending” and not Closed Contracts. But they are still one of the best short term metrics for what’s happening in the Tucson real estate market. Here’s what July’s numbers for Pending tell us:
Pending: 409
Capa: 420
Contingent: 1,180
All three of these categories get lumped into the Pending category since they are no long “Active”
The 409 in the “Pending” column are in the final stage, waiting on close of escrow.
The 1,180 “Contingent” column are those in some stage of the inspection period usually.
The 420 “Capa” column typically are offers contingent on the sale of another property.
The most likely to be closed transactions in August are the “Pending” ones. However, with the recent turmoil over the debt ceiling and the roller coaster stock market and consumer confidence levels we could see some nervous buyers pulling the plug on transactions even at this late date in the process.
Some will be willing to give up the Earnest Money out of fear over the future.
Remember, much of the debate and turmoil didn’t begin till the second week in July and it really didn’t heat up till the last week in July. So there won’t be much of that reflected in these pending numbers. It will be interesting to see what the closed transactions number and pending sales look like at the end of August when we pull out our crystal ball for September.
