Really ?
David Fitzsimmons is one of my favorite Tucsonans.
Why? Because he makes me laugh out loud 7 out of 10 times. The other 3 times I just get a big smile on my face.
I’m sure some of you will recall the quick post I did a few days back on the report about Tucson being “The Sickest Real Estate Market in the Country”
I could have taken issue with the report. It wasn’t based on very good data. After all Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida has been much worse shape than Tucson. So I simply published the quote and left it at that.
Thus, the fodder for the Fitz cartoon above. I like, It represents how many in the RE community (that would be agents and brokers) here in town have felt about the market the past couple of years.
The perception often posed is one of great doom and gloom
We hear about all the foreclosures, people late on their mortgage payments, tax liens being bought up by banks instead of them helping people stay in their homes. And of course the specter of “THE SHADOW INVENTORY“ this is the inventory that all the banks are sitting on holding off the market till the time is right to strike ruin upon us all.
These have built a perception of the Tucson RE market. Quite often perception actually leads to reality. Fear of a shortage can quite often create one. Fear of the future of the economy and everyone stops spending, which leads to fewer jobs, because businesses don’t have customers. It’s a cycle that can, and often is started by “perception.
The Wall of Reality in Tucson Real Estate
Here’s the elephant in the room that everyone (but a few) seem to be trying to ignore. The name of the elephant is “Available Inventory”. The last post I wrote on Pending Sales for July, I didn’t mention the Active Listings column. Take a look.
Not a lot on the market
When you click on the image you will see we only have 5412 active listings for the entire Tucson MLS system (This includes, Vail, Marana, Oro Valley, & Green Valley)
Considering the geographic area included in the Tucson MLS system that really is not a lot of active listings.
The reality, is: “There’s not that much to pick from”.
Active Listings Since 2000
I pulled this page from the July Statistics Report. It shows the history of active listings since 2000 to present. Notice that in 2007 we had inventories over 10,000. During the really crazy frantic market of 2005 – 2006 the inventory was below 4,000 at times.
Since February of this year we have seen the inventory gradually decrease each month.
This isn’t perceived active listings, these are the active listings. Reality says, “There ain’t much to pick from” And with over 1000 properties being sold each month, “The Pickins are Gitten kinda slim”.
